文章目录

*
- 工具列表
- |1|焦点小组|4.1 4.2 5.2
- |2|访谈|4.1 4.2 5.2 8.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5
- |3|市场调研|12.1
- |4|问卷调查|5.2 8.3 13.1
- |5|统计抽样|8.3
- |6|备选方案分析|4.5 4.6 5.1 5.3 6.1 6.4 7.1 7.2 8.2 9.2 9.6 11.5 13.4
- |7|其他风险参数评估|11.3
- |8|假设条件和制约因素分析|11.2 13.2
- |9|质量成本|7.2 8.1
- |10|成本效益分析|4.5 4.6 8.1 9.6 11.5
- |11|决策树分析|11.4
- |12|文件分析|4.7 5.2 8.2 11.2 13.1
- |13|挣值分析|4.5 6.6 7.4 12.3
- |14|影响图|11.4
- |15|迭代燃尽图|6.6
- |16|自制和外购分析|12.1
- |17|绩效审查|6.6 8.3 9.6 12.3
- |18|过程分析|8.2
- |19|建议书评价|12.2
- |20|回归分析|4.7
- |21|储备分析|6.4 7.2 7.3 7.4 11.7
- |22|风险数据质量评估|11.3
- |23|风险概率和影响评估|11.3
- |24|根本原因分析||4.5 8.2 8.3 11.2 13.2 13.4
- |25|敏感性分析|11.4
- |26|模拟|6.5 11.4
- |27|相关方分析|11.1 13.1 13.4
- |28|SWOT分析|11.2
- |29|技术绩效分析|11.7
- |30|趋势分析|4.5，4.7，5.6，6.6，7.4，9.6，12.3
- |31|偏差分析|4.5，4.7，5.6，6.6，7.4
- |32|假设情景分析|6.5， 6.6
- |33|概率和影响矩阵|11.3
- |34|相关方参与度评估矩阵|10.1 10.3 13.2 13.4
- |35|相关方映射分析/表现|13.1
- |36|流程图|8.1 8.2
- |37|逻辑数据模型|8.1
- |38|思维导图|5.2 8.1 13.2
- |39|矩阵图|8.1 8.2
- |40|亲和图|5.2 8.2
- |42|直方图|8.2 8.3
- |43|散点图|8.2 8.3
- |44|控制图||8.3
- |45|责任分配矩阵|9.1
- |46|文本型|9.1
- |47|层级型|9.1
- |48|层级图|11.3
- |49|多标准决策与分析|4.6 5.2 5.3 8.1 8.2 9.3 11.5 13.4
- |50|投票|4.5 4.6 5.2 5.5 6.4 7.2 13.4
- |51|独裁型决策制定|4.6 5.2
- |52|优先级排序或分级|13.2
- |53|沟通胜任力|10.2
- |54|非语言/非口头技能|10.2
- |55|反馈|10.2 13.3 13.4
- |56|演示|10.2 13.4
- |57|积极倾听|4.4 10.2 13.4
- |58|沟通风格评估|10.1
- |59|冲突管理|4.1 4.2 9.4 9.5 10.2 13.3
- |60|文化意识|10.1 10.2 13.3 13.4
- |61|制定决策|9.5
- |62|情商|9.5
- |63|引导|4.1 4.2 4.4 5.2 5.3 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5
- |64|影响力|9.4 9.5 9.6

工具列表

序号名称关键词出现的章节

2022-02-17

1焦点小组相关方和主题专家，了解他们对所讨论的产品、服务或成果的期望和态度的一种启发4.1 制定项目章程

4.2 制定项目管理计划

5.2收集需求2访谈通过与相关方直接交谈，来获取信息的正式或非正式方法4.1 制定项目章程

4.2 制定项目管理计划

5.2 收集需求

8.1 规划质量管理

11.2 识别风险

11.3 实施风险定性分析

11.4 实施风险定量分析

11.5 规划风险应对3市场调研运用从会议、在线评论和各种其他渠道得到的信息，来了解市场情况12.1 规划采购管理4问卷调查设计一系列书面问题，向众多受访者快速手机信息5.2 收集需求

8.3 控制质量

13.1 识别相关方2022-02-185统计抽样从目标总体中选取部分样本用于检查8.3 控制质量6备选方案分析对不同的方案进行分析，选择最优的方案4.5 监控项目工作

4.6 实施整体变更控制

5.1 规划范围管理

5.3 定义范围

6.1 规划进度管理

6.4 估算活动持续时间

7.1 规划成本管理

7.2 估算成本

8.2 管理质量

9.2 估算资源

9.6 控制资源

11.5 规划风险应对

13.4监督相关方参与7其他风险参数评估对单个风险进行优先级排序时，可能考虑其他风险特征11.3 实施风险定性分析8假设条件和制约因素分析探索假设条件和制约因素的有效性，确定其中哪些会引发项目风险11.2 识别风险

13.2 规划相关方参与2022-02-199质量成本在整个产品生命周期所产生的所有成本7.2 估算成本

8.1 规划质量管理10成本效益分析比较项目成本与其带来的收益的财务分析工具4.5 监控项目工作

4.6 实施整体变更控制

8.1 规划质量管理

9.6 控制资源

11.5 规划风险应对11决策树分析用来评估与一个决策相关的多个可选方案在不确定情况下的可能后果11.4 实施风险定量分析12文件分析分析相关文件改进未来项目和组织资产、收集需求、质量偏差、识别分线以及识别相关方4.7 结束项目或阶段

5.2 收集需求

8.2 管理质量

11.2 识别风险

13.1 识别相关方2022-02-2013挣值分析对范围、进度和成本绩效进行了综合分析4.5 监控项目工作

6.6 实施整体变更控制

7.4 控制成本

12.3 控制采购

14影响图对变量和结果之间的因果关系、事件时间顺序及其他关系的图形表示11.4 实施风险定量分析15迭代燃尽图追踪迭代未完项中待完成的工作6.6 控制进度16自制和外购分析确定是团队自己完成还是从外部采购12.1 规划采购管理2022-02-2117绩效审查测量、对比或分析实际与计划的绩效6.6 控制进度

8.3 控制质量

9.6 控制资源

12.3 控制采购18过程分析识别过程改进机会，同时检查在过程期间遇到的问题、制约因素，以及非增值活动8.2 管理质量19建议书评价为做出合同授予决定而用于评审供应商提交的建议书的各种技术12.2 管理采购20回归分析通过考察一系列输入变量及其对应的输出结果，建立数学或统计关系4.7 结束项目或阶段2022-02-2221储备分析用来明确项目管理计划各组成部分的基本特征及其相互关系，从而为项目的工期、预算、成本估算和资金需求设定储备6.4 估算活动持续时间

7.2 估算成本

7.3 制定预算

7.4 控制成本

11.7 控制风险22风险数据质量评估评估风险数据对风险管理的有用程度11.3 实施风险定性分析23风险概率和影响评估风险发生的可能性，风险对进度、成本、质量或绩效的影响11.3 实施风险定性分析24根本原因分析确定引起偏差、缺陷或风险的根本原因4.5 监控项目工作

8.2 管理质量

8.3 控制质量

11.2 规划风险管理

13.2 规划相关方参与

13.4 监督相关方参与2022-02-2325敏感性分析一种定量风险分析技术，将项目结果的变化与定量风险分析模型中输入的的变化建立关联，从而确定对项目结果产生最大潜在影响的单个项目风险或其他不确定性来源11.4 实施风险定量分析26模拟一种分析技术，通过建立模型，来综合分析各种不确定性因素，评估这些因素对目标的，潜在影响6.5 制定进度计划

11.4 实施风险定量分析27相关方分析通过系统收集和分析各种定量与定性信息，来确定在整个项目中应该考虑哪些人的利益11.1 规划风险管理

13.1 识别相关方

13.4 监督相关方参与28SWOT分析对一个组织、项目或备选方案的优势、劣势、机会和威胁的分析11.2 识别风险2022-02-2429技术绩效分析技术成果与计划相比11.7 监督风险30趋势分析根据历史数据并利用数学模型，预测未来4.5 监控项目工作

4.7 结束项目或阶段

5.6 控制范围

6.6 控制进度

7.4 控制成本

9.6 控制资源

12.3 控制采购31偏差分析确定实际绩效与基准的差异程度及原因4.5 监控项目工作

4.7 结束项目或阶段

5.6 控制范围

6.6 控制进度

7.4 控制成本32假设情景分析对各种情景进行评估，预测它们对项目目标的影响6.5 指定进度计划

6.6 控制进度2022-02-2533概率和影响矩阵把每个风险发生的概率和一旦发生对项目目标的影响映射起来11.3 实施风险定性分析34相关方参与度评估矩阵将当前与期望的相关方参与程度进行比较10.1 规划沟通管理

10.3 监督沟通

13.2 规划相关方参与

13.4 监督相关放参与35相关方映射分析/表现利用不同方法对相关方进行分类的方法13.1 识别相关方36流程图对某系统内的一个或多个过程的输入、过程行为和输出的图形描述8.1 规划质量管理

8.2 管理质量2022-02-2637逻辑数据模型8.1 规划质量管理38思维导图头脑风暴中的创意整合成一张图，反映创意之间的共性与差异，激发新创意5.2 收集需求

8.1 规划质量管理

13.2 规划相关方参与39矩阵图使用矩阵结构对数据进行分析，在行列交叉的为位置展示引述、原因和目标之间的关系强弱8.1 规划质量管理

8.2 管理质量40亲和图对大量创意进行分组，以便进一步审查和分析5.2 收集需求

8.2 管理质量2022-02-2741因果图分解技术，有助于追溯造成非预期的结果的根本原因8.2 管理质量

8.3 控制质量42直方图展示数字数据的条形图8.2 管理质量

43散点图展示两个变量的关系8.2 管理质量

8.3 控制质量44控制图按时间顺序展示过程数据，并将这些数据与既定的控制界限相比较的一种图形。控制图有一条中心线，有助于观察图中的数据点向两边控制界限偏移的趋势8.3 控制质量2022-02-2845责任分配矩阵执行、负责、咨询和知情等词语来定义相关方在活动中的参与状态9.1 规划资源管理46文本型通过文本详细描述团队成员的职责9.1 规划资源管理47层级型通过工作分解结构（WBS）、组织分解结构（OBS）和资源分解结构（RBS)自上而下显示各种职位及其相互关系9.1 规划资源管理48层级图两个以上风险参数时使用，例如气泡图11.3 实施风险定性分析2022-03-0149多标准决策与分析借助决策树矩阵，用系统分析方法建立诸如风险水平、不确定性和价值收益等多种标准，从而对多方案进行评估和排序4.6 实施整体变更控制

5.2 收集需求

5.3 定义需求

8.1 制定质量管理计划

8.2 管理质量

9.3 估算资源

11.5 实施风险应对

13.4 监督相关方参与50投票一致同意、大多数同意或相对多数同意4.5 监控项目工作

4.6 实施整体变更控制

5.2 收集需求

5.5 确认范围

6.4 估算活动持续时间

7.2 估算成本

13.4 监督相关方参与51独裁型决策制定将由一个人负责整个集体制定决策4.6 实施整体变更控制

5.2 收集需求52优先级排序/分级对相关方及需求进行优先级排序或分级13.2 规划相关方参与2022-03-0253沟通胜任力经过裁剪的沟通技能的组合，有助于明确关键信息的目的、建立有效关系、实现信息共享和采取领导行为10.2 管理沟通54非语言通过示意、语调和面部表情等适当的肢体语言表达意思10.2 管理沟通55反馈沟通、可交付成果或情况的反应信息10.2 管理沟通

13.3 管理相关方参与

13.4 监督相关方参与56演示向相关方明确有效地演示项目信息10.2 管理沟通

13.4监督相关方参与2022-03-0357积极倾听与说话人保持互动，并总结对话内容，以确保有效的信息交换，减少误解病促进沟通和知识分享4.4 管理项目知识

10.2 管理沟通

13.4 监督相关方参与58沟通风格评估识别与相关方展开沟通的优选沟通方法、形式和内容的一种技术10.1 规划沟通管理59冲突管理撤退/回避、缓和/包容、妥协/调节、强迫/命令、合作/解决问题4.1 制定项目章程

4.2 制定项目管理计划

9.4 创建团队

9.5 管理团队

10.2 管理沟通

13.3 管理相关方参与60文化意识文化意识指理解个人、群体和组织之间的差异，并据此调整项目的沟通策略10.1 规划沟通管理

10.2 管理沟通

13.3 管理相关方参与

13.4 监督相关方参与2022-03-0461制定决策谈判能力以及影响组织与项目管理团队的能力9.5 管理团队62情商管理个人、他人及团队情绪，了解团队情绪、关注点、问题，减轻压力和加强合作9.5 管理团队63引导有助于有效指引团队成功地达成决定、解决方案或结论4.1 制定下项目章程

4.2 制定项目管理计划

4.4 管理项目知识

5.2 收集需求

5.3 定义需求

11.2 识别风险

11.3 实施风险定性分析

11.4 实施风险定量分析

11.5 规划风险应对64影响力影响相关方的能力，有利于解决问题、达成一致意见、项目成功9.4 建设团队

9.5 管理团队

9.6 控制资源

|1|焦点小组|4.1 4.2 5.2

4.1
焦点小组将利益攸关方和主题专家聚集在一起，讨论项目风险、成功标准等问题，这比一对一采访更有利于互动。

[En]

Focus groups bring together stakeholders and subject matter experts to discuss project risks, success criteria and other issues, which is more conducive to interaction than one-on-one interviews.

4.2
焦点小组将感兴趣的各方聚集在一起，讨论项目管理办法和项目管理计划各组成部分的整合。

[En]

The focus group brings together interested parties to discuss the project management approach and the integration of the various components of the project management plan.

5.2
焦点小组将预期的利益相关者和主题专家聚集在一起，以了解他们对讨论中的产品、服务或结果的期望和态度。一位训练有素的主持人主持了互动讨论。焦点小组往往比“一个”更好。

[En]

Focus groups bring together intended stakeholders and subject matter experts to understand their expectations and attitudes towards the products, services or results under discussion. A trained host led the interactive discussion. Focus groups are often better than "one"

对一"的访谈更热烈。

4.1
Focus groups bring together stakeholders and subject matter experts to learn about the perceived project risk, success criteria, and other topics in a more conversational way than a one-on-one interview.

4.2
Focus groups bring together stakeholders to discuss the project management approach and the integration of the different components of the project management plan.

5.2
Focus groups bring together prequalified stakeholders and subject matter experts to learn about their expectations and attitudes about a proposed product, service, or result. A trained moderator guides the group through an interactive discussion designed to be more conversational than a one-on-one interview.

|2|访谈|4.1 4.2 5.2 8.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5

4.1
面谈是指与感兴趣的各方进行直接对话，以了解高层需求、假设、限制、批准标准和其他信息。

[En]

An interview refers to a direct conversation with interested parties to understand high-level needs, assumptions, constraints, approval criteria and other information.

4.2
访谈用于从感兴趣的各方获取特定信息，以制定项目管理计划、任何子计划或项目文档。

[En]

Interviews are used to obtain specific information from interested parties to develop project management plans, any subplans, or project documents.

5.2
面谈是一种通过与感兴趣的人直接交谈来获得信息的正式或非正式的方式。面试的典型做法是询问受访者预先设定的和即兴提出的问题，并记录他们的答案。面试通常是面试者和被采访者之间的“一对一”谈话，但也可以包括多个采访者和/或被采访者。与经验丰富的项目参与者、赞助商和其他管理人员以及主题专家的访谈有助于确定和定义所需产品交付件的特征和功能。面谈也可以用来获取机密信息。

[En]

An interview is a formal or informal way to obtain information by talking directly with interested parties. The typical practice of the interview is to ask the interviewees preset and impromptu questions and record their answers. An interview is often a "one-on-one" conversation between an interviewer and an interviewee, but it can also include multiple interviewers and / or interviewees. Interviews with experienced project participants, sponsors, and other executives, as well as subject matter experts, help identify and define the characteristics and functions of the required product deliverables. Interviews can also be used to obtain confidential information.

8.1
与经验丰富的项目参与者、利益相关者和主题专家的访谈有助于了解他们对项目和产品质量的隐含和明确、正式和非正式的需求和期望。面试应在信任和保密的环境中进行，以获得

[En]

Interviews with experienced project participants, stakeholders and subject matter experts help to understand their implicit and explicit, formal and informal needs and expectations for project and product quality. Interviews should be conducted in an environment of trust and confidentiality to obtain

得真实可信、不带偏见的反馈。
11.2
个别项目风险和整体项目风险的来源可以通过与高级项目参与者、利益攸关方和专题专家的面谈来确定。面谈应在信任和保密的环境中进行(见第5.2.2.2节)，以获得真实和不偏不倚的意见。

[En]

The source of individual project risk and overall project risk can be identified through interviews with senior project participants, stakeholders and subject matter experts. Interviews should be conducted in an environment of trust and confidentiality (see section 5.2.2.2) to obtain authentic and unbiased opinions.

11.3
结构化或半结构化的访谈（见 5.2.2.2 节）
可用于评估单个项目风险的概率和影响，以及其他因素。面试官应创造信任和保密的环境，鼓励受访者提出诚实和不偏不倚的意见。

[En]

Can be used to assess the probability and impact of individual project risks, as well as other factors. Interviewers should create an environment of trust and confidentiality to encourage interviewees to give honest and unbiased opinions.

11.4
访谈（见 5.2.2.2 节）可用于针对单个项目风险和其他不确定性来源，生成定量风险分析的输入。当需要向专家征求信息时，访谈尤其适用。访谈者应该营造信任和保密的访谈环境，以鼓励被访者提出诚实和无偏见的意见。
11.5
对单个项目风险和整体项目风险的反应可以在与风险利益相关者的结构化或半结构化访谈中制定(见第5.2.2.2节)。如有需要，亦可与其他有兴趣的人士面谈。面试官应创造信任和保密的环境，鼓励受访者提出诚实和不偏不倚的意见。

[En]

Responses to individual project risks and overall project risks can be developed in structured or semi-structured interviews with risk stakeholders (see Section 5.2.2.2). Other interested parties can also be interviewed if necessary. Interviewers should create an environment of trust and confidentiality to encourage interviewees to give honest and unbiased opinions.

4.1
Interviews are used to obtain information on high-level requirements, assumptions or constraints, approval criteria, and other information from stakeholders by talking directly to them.

4.2
Interviews are used to obtain specific information from stakeholders to develop the project management plan or any component plan or project document.

5.2
An interview is a formal or informal approach to elicit information from stakeholders by talking to them directly. It is typically performed by asking prepared and spontaneous questions and recording the responses. Interviews are often conducted on an individual basis between an interviewer and an interviewee, but may involve multiple interviewers and/or multiple interviewees. Interviewing experienced project participants, sponsors, other executives, and subject matter experts can aid in identifying and defining the features and functions of the desired product deliverables. Interviews are also useful for obtaining confidential information.

8.1
Project and product quality needs and expectations, implicit and explicit, formal and informal, can be identified by interviewing experienced project participants, stakeholders, and subject matter experts. Interviews should be conducted in an environment of trust and confidentiality to encourage honest and unbiased contributions.

11.2
Individual project risks and sources of overall project risk can be identified by interviewing experienced project participants, stakeholders, and subject matter experts. Interviews (see Section 5.2.2.2) should be conducted in an environment of trust and confidentiality to encourage honest and unbiased contributions.

11.3
Structured or
semi-structured interviews (Section 5.2.2.2) can be used to assess the probability and impacts of individual project risks, as well as other factors. The interviewer should promote an environment of trust and confidentiality in the interview setting to encourage honest and unbiased assessments.

11.4
Interviews (see Section 5.2.2.2) may be used to generate inputs for the quantitative risk analysis, drawing on inputs that include individual project risks and other sources of uncertainty. This is particularly useful where information is required from experts. The interviewer should promote an environment of trust and confidentiality during the interview to encourage honest and unbiased contributions.

11.5
Data-gathering techniques that can be used for this process include but are not limited to interviews (see Section 5.2.2.2). Development of responses to individual project risks and overall project risk may be undertaken during structured or semi-structured interviews (see Section 5.2.2.2) with risk owners. Other stakeholders may also be interviewed if necessary. The interviewer should promote an environment of trust and confidentiality in the interview setting to encourage honest and unbiased decisions.

|3|市场调研|12.1

12.1
市场研究包括检查行业状况和特定卖家的能力。采购团队可以使用会议、在线审查和各种其他渠道的信息来了解市场。采购小组还可以调整具体的采购目标，以利用成熟的技术，同时平衡与能够提供所需材料或服务的卖方范围有关的风险。

[En]

Market research includes examining the situation of the industry and the capabilities of specific sellers. Purchasing teams can use information from meetings, online reviews and various other channels to learn about the market. Procurement teams can also adjust specific procurement objectives to take advantage of mature technology while balancing the risks associated with the scope of sellers capable of providing the required materials or services.

12.1
Market research includes examination of industry and specific seller capabilities. Procurement teams may leverage information gained at conferences, online reviews, and a variety of sources to identify market capabilities. The team may also refine specific procurement objectives to leverage maturing technologies while balancing risks associated with the breadth of sellers who can provide the desired materials or services.

|4|问卷调查|5.2 8.3 13.1

5.2
问卷指的是设计一系列书面问题，以快速从大量受访者那里收集信息。问卷调查方法非常适合以下情况：受众多样化，调查需要快速完成，受访者地域分散，适合统计分析。

[En]

The questionnaire refers to the design of a series of written questions to quickly collect information from a large number of respondents. The questionnaire survey method is very suitable for the following situations: the audience is diversified, the survey needs to be completed quickly, the respondents are geographically dispersed, and are suitable for statistical analysis.

8.3
问卷调查可用于在部署产品或服务之后收集关于客户满意度的数据。在问卷调查中识别的缺陷相关成本可被视为 COQ 模型中的外部失败成本，给组织带来的影响会超出成
本本身。
13.1
问卷和调查可以包括一对一调查、焦点小组讨论或其他大规模信息收集技术。

[En]

Questionnaires and surveys can include one-on-one surveys, focus group discussions, or other large-scale information-gathering techniques.

5.2
Questionnaires and surveys are written sets of questions designed to quickly accumulate information from a large number of respondents. Questionnaires and/or surveys are most appropriate with varied audiences, when a quick turnaround is needed, when respondents are geographically dispersed, and where statistical analysis could be appropriate.

8.3
Surveys may be used to gather data about customer satisfaction after the deployment of the product or service. The cost regarding defects identified in the surveys may be considered external failure costs in the COQ model and can have extensive cost implications for the organization.

13.1
Questionnaires and surveys can include one-on-one reviews, focus group sessions, or other mass information collection techniques.

|5|统计抽样|8.3

8.3
统计抽样是指从目标总体中选取部分样本用于检查（如从 75 张工程图纸中随机抽取10 张）。样本用于测量控制和确认质量。抽样的频率和规模应在规划质量管理过程中确定。
8.3
Statistical sampling involves choosing part of a population of interest for inspection (for example, selecting 10 engineering drawings at random from a list of 75). The sample is taken to measure controls and verify quality. Sample frequency and sizes should be determined during the Plan Quality Management process.

|6|备选方案分析|4.5 4.6 5.1 5.3 6.1 6.4 7.1 7.2 8.2 9.2 9.6 11.5 13.4

4.5
替代分析用于选择在出现偏差时要采取的纠正措施或纠正和预防措施的组合。

[En]

Alternative analysis is used to select corrective actions or a combination of corrective and preventive actions to be taken in the event of deviations.

4.6
此技术用于评估更改请求，并确定哪些请求是可接受的、应该拒绝的或需要修改的。

[En]

This technique is used to evaluate change requests and determine which requests are acceptable, should be rejected, or need to be modified.

5.1
该技术用于评估收集需求、详细说明项目和产品范围、创建产品、确定范围和控制范围的各种方法。

[En]

This technique is used to evaluate various methods for collecting requirements, detailing project and product scope, creating products, identifying scope, and controlling scope.

5.3
可以使用替代分析来评估实现项目章程中所述需求和目标的方法。

[En]

Alternative analysis can be used to assess ways to achieve the needs and objectives described in the project charter.

6.1
替代分析可包括确定采用哪种进度方法以及如何将不同的方法纳入项目；此外，还可包括确定进度的详细程度、滚动规划的持续时间以及审查和更新的频率。管理进度所需的计划详细程度与更新计划所需的时间之间的平衡应因项目而异。

[En]

Alternative analysis could include determining which schedule methodology to use and how to integrate different approaches into the project; in addition, it could include determining the level of detail of the schedule, the duration of rolling planning, and the frequency of reviews and updates. The balance between the level of plan detail required to manage progress and the amount of time required to update the plan should be project-specific.

6.4
替代分析用于比较不同的资源能力或技能水平、进度压缩技术(请参见第6.5.2.6节)、不同的工具(手动和自动)以及关于资源创建、租赁和购买的决策。这有助于团队权衡资源、成本和持续时间变量，以确定完成项目工作的最佳方式。

[En]

Alternative analysis is used to compare different resource competencies or skill levels, progress compression techniques (see Section 6.5.2.6), different tools (manual and automatic), and decisions on resource creation, leasing and purchase. This helps the team weigh the resource, cost, and duration variables to determine the best way to complete the project work.

7.1
对备选办法的分析可包括审查战略筹资办法，如自筹资金、股权投资、贷款投资等，以及审议筹集项目资源的方式(如自制、采购、租赁或租赁)。

[En]

The analysis of options may include a review of strategic approaches to financing, such as self-financing, equity investments, loan investments, etc., as well as considerations of ways to raise project resources (such as homemade, procurement, rental or leasing).

7.2
备选分析是一种技术，用于评估确定的选项，以决定选择哪个选项或使用哪个方法来执行项目工作。例如，评估采购和制造交付件对成本、进度、资源和质量的影响。

[En]

Alternative analysis is a technique for evaluating identified options to decide which option to choose or which method to use to carry out project work. For example, assess the impact of purchasing and manufacturing deliverables on cost, schedule, resources, and quality, respectively.

8.2
该技术用于评估已识别的选项，以选择最合适的高质量解决方案或方法。

[En]

The technique is used to evaluate identified options to select the most appropriate quality solutions or methods.

9.2
备选分析是一种技术，用于评估确定的选项，以决定选择哪个选项或使用哪个方法来执行项目工作。许多活动都有多种替代实现，例如使用具有不同能力或技能水平的资源、使用不同大小或类型的机器、使用不同的工具(手动或自动)，以及决定资源自我控制、租用还是购买。替代分析有助于提供在定义的约束范围内实施项目活动的最佳方式。

[En]

Alternative analysis is a technique for evaluating identified options to decide which option to choose or which method to use to carry out project work. Many activities have multiple alternative implementations, such as the use of resources with different capabilities or skill levels, machines of different sizes or types, different tools (manual or automatic), and decisions about resource self-control, rental or purchase. Alternative analysis helps to provide the best way to implement project activities within the defined constraints.

9.6
替代分析有助于选择最佳解决方案来纠正资源使用偏差，并且可以将加班和增加团队资源等选项与延迟或分阶段交付进行比较，以权衡利弊。

[En]

Alternative analysis helps to select the best solution to correct resource usage deviations, and options such as overtime and increased team resources can be compared with delayed or phased delivery to weigh the pros and cons.

11.5
简单比较备选风险应对计划的特点和要求，然后确定哪一种最合适。

[En]

Make a simple comparison of the characteristics and requirements of the alternative risk response plan, and then determine which one is the most suitable.

13.4
当相关方的参与效果不符合预期要求时，应进行替代分析，以评估处理偏差的各种方案。

[En]

When the participation effect of the relevant parties does not meet the desired requirements, an alternative analysis should be carried out to evaluate the various options to deal with the deviation.

4.5
Alternatives analysis is used to select the corrective actions or a combination of corrective and preventive actions to implement when a deviation occurs.

4.6
Described in Section 9.2.2.5. This technique is used to assess the requested changes and decide which are accepted, rejected, or need to be modified to be finally accepted.

5.1
Various ways of collecting requirements, elaborating the project and product scope, creating the product, validating the scope, and controlling the scope are evaluated.

5.3
Alternatives analysis can be used to evaluate ways to meet the requirements and the objectives identified in the charter.

6.1
Alternatives analysis can include determining which schedule methodology to use, or how to combine various methods on the project. It can also include determining how detailed the schedule needs to be, the duration of waves for rolling wave planning, and how often it should be reviewed and updated. An appropriate balance between the level of detail needed to manage the schedule and the amount of time it takes to keep it up to date needs to be reached for each project.

6.4
Alternatives analysis is used to compare various levels of resource capability or skills; scheduling compression techniques (described in Section 6.5.2.6); different tools (manual versus automated); and make, rent, or buy decisions regarding the resources. This allows the team to weigh resource, cost, and duration variables to determine an optimal approach for accomplishing project work.

7.1
Alternatives analysis can include reviewing strategic funding options such as: self-funding, funding with equity, or funding with debt. It can also include consideration of ways to acquire project resources such as making, purchasing, renting, or leasing.

7.2
Alternatives analysis is a technique used to evaluate identified options in order to select which options or approaches to use to execute and perform the work of the project. An example would be evaluating the cost, schedule, resource, and quality impacts of buying versus making a deliverable.

8.2
This technique is used to evaluate identified options in order to select which different quality options or approaches are most appropriate to use.

9.2
Alternatives analysis is used to evaluate identified options in order to select the options or approaches to use to execute and perform the work of the project. Many activities have multiple options for accomplishment. They include using various levels of resource capability or skills, different sizes or types of machines, different tools (manual versus automated), and make-rent-orbuy decisions regarding the resources. Alternatives analysis assists in providing the best solution to perform the project activities, within the defined constraints.

9.6
Alternatives can be analyzed to select the best resolution for correcting variances in resource utilization. Alternatives such as paying additional for overtime or additional team resources can be weighed against a late delivery or phased deliveries.

11.5
A simple comparison of the characteristics and requirements of alternative risk response options can lead to a decision on which response is most appropriate.

13.4
Alternatives analysis can be used to evaluate options to respond to variances in the desired results of stakeholder engagement.

|7|其他风险参数评估|11.3

11.3
为了便于将来的分析和行动，项目组在确定个别项目风险的优先顺序时，可能会考虑其他风险特征(除了概率和影响之外)。这些功能可能包括但不限于：

[En]

To facilitate future analysis and action, the project team may consider other risk characteristics (in addition to probability and impact) when prioritizing individual project risks. Such features may include, but are not limited to:

• 紧迫性。 为有效应对风险而必须采取应对措施的时间段。时间短就说明紧迫性高。
• 邻近性。 风险在多长时间后会影响一项或多项项目目标。时间短就说明邻近性高。
• 潜伏期。 从风险发生到影响显现之间可能的时间段。时间短就说明潜伏期短。
• 可管理性。 风险责任人（或责任组织）管理风险发生或影响的容易程度。如果容易管理，可管理性就高。
• 可控性。 风险责任人（或责任组织）能够控制风险后果的程度。如果后果很容易控制，可控性就高。
• 可监测性。 对风险发生或即将发生进行监测的容易程度。如果风险发生很容易监测，可监测性就高。
• 连通性。 风险与其他单个项目风险存在关联的程度大小。如果风险与多个其他风险存在关联，连通性就高。
• 战略影响力。 风险对组织战略目标潜在的正面或负面影响。如果风险对战略目标有重大影响，战略影响力就大。
• 密切度。 风险被一名或多名相关方认为要紧的程度。被认为很要紧的风险，密切度就高。
  与仅仅评估概率和影响相比，考虑其中一些特征有助于更可靠地确定风险的优先顺序。
  [En]

  Considering some of these characteristics contributes to a more robust prioritization of risks than just assessing probabilities and impacts.

  11.3
  The project team may consider other characteristics of risk (in addition to probability and impact) when prioritizing individual project risks for further analysis and action. These characteristics may include but are not limited to:

• Urgency. The period of time within which a response to the risk is to be implemented in order to be effective. A short period indicates high urgency.

• Proximity. The period of time before the risk might have an impact on one or more project objectives. A short period indicates high proximity.

• Dormancy. The period of time that may elapse after a risk has occurred before its impact is discovered. A short period indicates low dormancy.

• Manageability. The ease with which the risk owner (or owning organization) can manage the occurrence or impact of a risk. Where management is easy, manageability is high.

• Controllability. The degree to which the risk owner (or owning organization) is able to control the risk's outcome. Where the outcome can be easily controlled, controllability is high.

• Detectability. The ease with which the results of the risk occurring, or being about to occur, can be detected and recognized. Where the risk occurrence can be detected easily, detectability is high.

• Connectivity. The extent to which the risk is related to other individual project risks. Where a risk is connected to many other risks, connectivity is high.

• Strategic impact. The potential for the risk to have a positive or negative effect on the organization's strategic goals. Where the risk has a major effect on strategic goals, strategic impact is high.

• Propinquity. The degree to which a risk is perceived to matter by one or more stakeholders. Where a risk is perceived as very significant, propinquity is high.

The consideration of some of these characteristics can provide a more robust prioritization of risks than is possible by only assessing probability and impact.

|8|假设条件和制约因素分析|11.2 13.2

11.2
每个项目的概念和发展及其项目管理计划都是基于一系列假设，并受到一系列约束的限制。这些假设和约束通常被合并到范围基准和项目估计中。开展对假设和约束的分析，以探索假设和约束的有效性，并确定它们中的哪些会导致项目风险。威胁可以从假设的不准确、不稳定、不一致或不完整中识别出来，而机会可以通过消除或放松影响项目或流程实施的约束来创造。

[En]

The conception and development of each project and its project management plan are based on a series of assumptions and are limited by a series of constraints. These assumptions and constraints are often incorporated into scoped benchmarks and project estimates. Carry out the analysis of assumptions and constraints to explore the effectiveness of assumptions and constraints and determine which of them will cause project risk. Threats can be identified from the inaccuracy, instability, inconsistency or incompleteness of assumptions, and opportunities can be created by removing or relaxing constraints that affect the implementation of the project or process.

13.2
可能有必要分析目前的假设和制约因素，以便合理地调整有关各方的参与战略。

[En]

It may be necessary to analyze the current assumptions and constraints in order to rationally tailor the participation strategies of relevant parties.

11.2
Every project and its project management plan are conceived and developed based on a set of assumptions and within a series of constraints. These are often already incorporated in the scope baseline and project estimates. Assumption and constraint analysis explores the validity of assumptions and constraints to determine which pose a risk to the project. Threats may be identified from the inaccuracy, instability, inconsistency, or incompleteness of assumptions. Constraints may give rise to opportunities through removing or relaxing a limiting factor that affects the execution of a project or process.

13.2
Analysis of current assumptions and constraints may be conducted in order to tailor appropriate engagement strategies.

|9|质量成本|7.2 8.1

7.2
在估算时，可能要用到关于质量成本（见 8.1.2.3 节）的各种假设，这包括对以下情况进行评估：是为达到要求而增加投入，还是承担不符合要求而造成的成本；是寻求短期成本降低，还是承担产品生命周期后期频繁出现问题的后果。
8.1
与项目有关的质量成本 (COQ) 包含以下一种或多种成本（图 8-5 提供了各组成本的例子）：

• 预防成本。 预防特定项目的产品、可交付成果或服务质量低劣所带来的相关成本。
• 评估成本。 评估、测量、审计和测试特定项目的产品、可交付成果或服务所带来的相关成本。
• 失败成本（内部/外部）。 因产品、可交付成果或服务与相关方需求或期望不一致而导致的相关成本。
  最优 COQ 能够在预防成本和评估成本之间找到恰当的投资平衡点，以规避失败成本。有关模型表明，最优项目质量成本，指在投资额外的预防/评估成本时，既无益处又不具备成本效益。
  

7.2
Assumptions about costs of quality (Section 8.1.2.3) may be used to prepare the estimates. This includes evaluating the cost impact of additional investment in conformance versus the cost of nonconformance. It can also include looking at short-term cost reductions versus the implication of more frequent problems later on in the product life cycle.

8.1
The cost of quality (COQ) associated with a project consists of one or more of the following costs (Figure 8-5 lists examples for each cost group):

• Prevention costs. Costs related to the prevention of poor quality in the products, deliverables, or services of the specific project.

• Appraisal costs. Costs related to evaluating, measuring, auditing, and testing the products, deliverables, or services of the specific project.

• Failure costs (internal/external). Costs related to nonconformance of the products, deliverables, or services to the needs or expectations of the stakeholders.

The optimal COQ is one that reflects the appropriate balance for investing in the cost of prevention and appraisal to avoid failure costs. Models show that there is an optimal quality cost for projects, where investing in additional prevention/appraisal costs is neither beneficial nor cost effective.

; |10|成本效益分析|4.5 4.6 8.1 9.6 11.5

4.5
成本效益分析有助于在项目出现偏差时确定最具成本效益的纠正措施。

[En]

Cost-benefit analysis helps to identify the most cost-effective corrective actions in the event of project deviations.

4.6
该分析有助于确定变更请求是否值得投入相关成本。
8.1
成本效益分析是一种财务分析工具，用于估计各种方案的优缺点，以确定能够创造最佳效益的方案。成本效益分析可以帮助项目经理确定计划的质量活动是否有效地利用了成本。满足质量要求的主要好处包括减少返工、提高生产率、降低成本、提高相关方满意度和提高盈利能力。每项质量活动的成本效益分析是将其可能的成本与预期效益进行比较。

[En]

Cost-benefit analysis is a financial analysis tool used to estimate the advantages and disadvantages of options to determine the options that can create the best benefits. Cost-benefit analysis can help project managers determine whether planned quality activities make effective use of costs. The main benefits of meeting the quality requirements include reducing rework, improving productivity, reducing costs, increasing the satisfaction of relevant parties and improving profitability. The cost-benefit analysis of each quality activity is to compare its possible costs with expected benefits.

9.6
成本效益分析有助于在项目成本出现差异时确定最佳的纠正措施。
11.5
如果单个项目风险的影响可以用货币来量化，那么替代风险应对策略的成本效益就可以通过成本效益分析来确定(见第8.1.2.3节)。反应策略引起的风险影响水平变化除以策略的实施成本所得到的比率代表了反应策略的成本效益。比例越高，效果越好。

[En]

If the impact of individual project risks can be quantified in currency, then the cost-effectiveness of alternative risk response strategies can be determined through cost-benefit analysis (see Section 8.1.2.3). The ratio obtained by dividing the risk impact level change caused by the response strategy by the implementation cost of the strategy represents the cost effectiveness of the response strategy. The higher the ratio, the higher the effectiveness.

4.5
Cost-benefit analysis helps to determine the best corrective action in terms of cost in case of project deviations.

4.6
This analysis helps to determine if the requested change is worth its associated cost.

8.1
A cost-benefit analysis is a financial analysis tool used to estimate the strengths and weaknesses of alternatives in order to determine the best alternative in terms of benefits provided. A costbenefit analysis will help the project manager determine if the planned quality activities are cost effective. The primary benefits of meeting quality requirements include less rework, higher productivity, lower costs, increased stakeholder satisfaction, and increased profitability. A cost-benefit analysis for each quality activity compares the cost of the quality step to the expected benefit.

9.6
This analysis helps to determine the best corrective action in terms of cost in case of project deviations.

11.5
If the impact of an individual project risk can be quantified in monetary terms, then the cost-effectiveness of alternative risk response strategies can be determined using cost-benefit analysis (see Section 8.1.2.3). The ratio of (change in impact level) divided by (implementation cost) gives the cost effectiveness of the response strategy, with a higher ratio indicating a more effective response.

|11|决策树分析|11.4

11.4
使用决策树从多个可选操作中选择最好的一个。在决策树中，不同的分支用于表示不同的决策或事件，即项目的替代路径。每个决策或事件都有相关的成本和单独的项目

[En]

Use the decision tree to select the best one among several alternative actions. In the decision tree, different branches are used to represent different decisions or events, that is, alternative paths to the project. Each decision or event has associated costs and individual projects

风险(包括威胁和机会)。决策树分支的终点表示沿着特定路径发展的最终结果，它可以是否定的，也可以是肯定的。

[En]

Risks (including threats and opportunities). The end point of the branch of the decision tree represents the final result of development along a particular path, which can be negative or positive.

在决策树分析中，通过计算各分支机构的货币期望值来选择最优路径。决策树的一个例子如图11-15所示。

[En]

In the decision tree analysis, the optimal path can be selected by calculating the expected monetary value of each branch. An example of a decision tree is shown in figure 11-15.

11.4
Decision trees are used to support selection of the best of several alternative courses of action. Alternative paths through the project are shown in the decision tree using branches representing different decisions or events, each of which can have associated costs and related individual project risks (including both threats and opportunities). The end-points of branches in the decision tree represent the outcome from following that particular path, which can be negative or positive.

The decision tree is evaluated by calculating the expected monetary value of each branch, allowing the optimal path to be selected. An example decision tree is shown in Figure 11-15.

; |12|文件分析|4.7 5.2 8.2 11.2 13.1

4.7
对现有文件的评价有助于总结经验教训并分享知识，以改进未来的项目和组织资产。

[En]

The evaluation of existing documents helps to summarize lessons learned and share knowledge to improve future projects and organizational assets.

5.2
文档分析包括审查和评估任何相关的文档信息。在这个过程中，文档分析用于通过分析现有文档和识别与需求相关的信息来获取需求。有许多文件可以帮助您获得相关要求。可供分析的文件包括但不限于：

[En]

Document analysis includes reviewing and evaluating any relevant document information. In this process, document analysis is used to obtain requirements by analyzing existing documents and identifying information related to requirements. There are many documents that help to obtain the relevant requirements. Documents available for analysis include, but are not limited to:

• 协议；
• 商业计划；
• 业务流程或接口文档；
• 业务规则库；
• 现行流程；
• 市场文献；
• 问题日志；
• 政策和程序；
• 法规文件，如法律、准则、法令等；
• 建议邀请书；
• 用例。
  8.2
  分析项目控制过程中输出的不同文档，如质量报告、测试报告、性能报告和偏差分析，可以突出可能超出控制范围的过程，并防止项目团队满足特定要求或利益相关者的期望。
  [En]

  Analyzing the different documents output from the project control process, such as quality reports, test reports, performance reports, and deviation analysis, can highlight processes that may go beyond control and prevent the project team from meeting specific requirements or stakeholders' expectations.

  11.2
  通过对项目文档的结构化审查，可以识别一些风险。可供审查的文件包括但不限于计划、假设、约束、以前的项目文件、合同、协议和技术文件。项目文件中的不确定性或模糊性，以及同一文件内或不同文件之间的不一致，可能是项目风险的指标。

  [En]

  Through a structured review of project documents, some risks can be identified. Documents available for review include, but are not limited to, plans, assumptions, constraints, previous project files, contracts, agreements and technical documents. Uncertainty or fuzziness in project documents, as well as inconsistencies within the same document or between different documents, may be indicators of project risk.

  13.1
  评估现有项目文件和从以前项目中吸取的经验教训，以确定利益攸关方和其他辅助信息。

  [En]

  Evaluate existing project documents and lessons learned from previous projects to identify stakeholders and other supporting information.

4.7
Assessing available documentation will allow identifying lessons learned and knowledge sharing for future projects and organizational assets improvement.

5.2
Document analysis consists of reviewing and assessing any relevant documented information. In this process, document analysis is used to elicit requirements by analyzing existing documentation and identifying information relevant to the requirements. There is a wide range of documents that may be analyzed to help elicit relevant requirements. Examples of documents that may be analyzed include but are not limited to:

• Agreements;
• Business plans;
• Business process or interface documentation;
• Business rules repositories;
• Current process flows;
• Marketing literature;
• Problem/issue logs;
• Policies and procedures;
• Regulatory documentation such as laws, codes, or ordinances, etc.;
• Requests for proposal; and
• Use cases.

8.2
The analysis of different documents produced as part of the output of project control processes, such as quality reports, test reports, performance reports, and variance analysis, can point to and focus on processes that may be out of control and may jeopardize meeting the specified requirements or stakeholders' expectations.

11.2
Risks may be identified from a structured review of project documents, including, but not limited to, plans, assumptions, constraints, previous project files, contracts, agreements, and technical documentation. Uncertainty or ambiguity in project documents, as well as
inconsistencies within a document or between different documents, may be indicators of risk on the project.

13.1
Assessing the available project documentation and lessons learned from previous projects to identify stakeholders and other supporting information.

|13|挣值分析|4.5 6.6 7.4 12.3

4.5
挣值分析对范围、进度和成本绩效进行了综合分析。
6.6
进度绩效测量指标（如进度偏差（SV）和进度绩效指数（SPI））用于评价偏离初始进度基准的程度。
7.4
挣值分析将实际进度和成本绩效与绩效测量基准进行比较。 EVM把范围基准、成本基准和进度基准整合起来，形成绩效测量基准。它针对每个工作包和控制账户，计算并监测以下三个关键指标：

• 计划价值。 计划价值（PV）是为计划工作分配的经批准的预算，它是为完成某活动或工作分解结构 (WBS) 组成部分而准备的一份经批准的预算，不包括管理储备。应该把该预算分配至项目生命周期的各个阶段；在某个给定的时间点，计划价值代表着应该已经完成的工作。 PV的总和有时被称为绩效测量基准（PMB），项目的总计划价值又被称为完工预算（BAC）。
• 挣值。 挣值（EV）是对已完成工作的测量值，用该工作的批准预算来表示，是已完成工作的经批准的预算。 EV的计算应该与PMB相对应，且所得的EV值不得大于相应组件的PV总预算。EV 常用于计算项目的完成百分比，应该为每个 WBS 组件规定进展测量准则，用于考核正在实施的工作。项目经理既要监测 EV 的增量，以判断当前的状态，又要监测 EV 的累计值，以判断长期的绩效趋势。
• 实际成本。 实际成本（AC）是在给定时段内，执行某活动而实际发生的成本，是为完成与 EV相对应的工作而发生的总成本。 AC 的计算方法必须与 PV 和 EV 的计算方法保持一致（例如，都只计算直接小时数，都只计算直接成本，或都计算包含间接成本在内的全部成本）。 AC 没有上限，为实现 EV 所花费的任何成本都要计算进去。
  12.3
  计算进度和成本偏差，以及进度和成本绩效指标，以确定偏离目标的程度。
  [En]

  Calculate schedule and cost deviations, as well as schedule and cost performance indicators to determine the extent of deviation from the target.

4.5
Earned value provides an integrated perspective on scope, schedule, and cost performance.

6.6
Schedule performance measurements such as schedule variance (SV) and schedule performance index (SPI) are used to assess the magnitude of variation to the original schedule baseline.

7.4
Earned value analysis compares the performance measurement baseline to the actual schedule and cost performance. EVM integrates the scope baseline with the cost baseline and schedule baseline to form the performance measurement baseline. EVM develops and monitors three key dimensions for each work package and control account:

• Planned value. Planned value (PV) is the authorized budget assigned to scheduled work. It is the authorized budget planned for the work to be accomplished for an activity or work breakdown structure (WBS) component, not including management reserve. This budget is allocated by phase over the life of the project, but at a given point in time, planned value defines the physical work that should have been accomplished. The total of the PV is sometimes referred to as the performance measurement baseline (PMB). The total planned value for the project is also known as budget at completion (BAC).

• Earned value. Earned value (EV) is a measure of work performed expressed in terms of the budget authorized for that work. It is the budget associated with the authorized work that has been completed. The EV being measured needs to be related to the PMB, and the EV measured cannot be greater than the authorized PV budget for a component. The EV is often used to calculate the percent complete of a project. Progress measurement criteria should be established for each WBS component to measure work in progress. Project managers monitor EV, both incrementally to determine current status and cumulatively to determine the longterm performance trends.

• Actual cost. Actual cost (AC) is the realized cost incurred for the work performed on an activity during a specific time period. It is the total cost incurred in accomplishing the work that the EV measured. The AC needs to correspond in definition to what was budgeted in the PV and measured in the EV (e.g., direct hours only, direct costs only, or all costs including indirect costs). The AC will have no upper limit; whatever is spent to achieve the EV will be measured.

12.3
Schedule and cost variances along with schedule and cost performance indexes are calculated to determine the degree of variance from target.

|14|影响图|11.4

11.4
影响图是不确定条件下决策制定的图形辅助工具。它将一个项目或项目中的一种情境表现为一系列实体、结果和影响，以及它们之间的关系和相互影响。如果因为存在单个项目风险或其他不确定性来源而使影响图中的某些要素不确定，就在影响图中以区间或概率分布的形式表示这些要素；然后，借助模拟技术（如蒙特卡洛分析）来分析哪些要素对重要结果具有最大的影响。影响图分析，可以得出类似于其他定量风险分析的结果，如 S 曲线图和龙卷风图。
11.4
Influence diagrams are graphical aids to decision making under uncertainty. An influence diagram represents a project or situation within the project as a set of entities, outcomes, and influences, together with the relationships and effects between them. Where an element in the influence diagram is uncertain as a result of the existence of individual project risks or other sources of uncertainty, this can be represented in the influence diagram using ranges or probability distributions. The influence diagram is then evaluated using a simulation technique, such as Monte Carlo analysis, to indicate which elements have the greatest influence on key outcomes. Outputs from an influence diagram are similar to other quantitative risk analysis methods, including S-curves and tornado diagrams.

|15|迭代燃尽图|6.6

6.6
这种类型的图表用于跟踪迭代的未完成项中剩余要完成的工作。它基于迭代计划中确定的工作来分析与理想的燃尽图的偏差(见第6.4.2.8节)。预测性趋势线可用于预测迭代结束时可能出现的偏差以及迭代期间应采取的合理操作。在倦怠图中，用对角线表示理想的倦怠状态，然后绘制每天的实际剩余工作，最后根据剩余工作计算趋势线来预测完成情况。图6-24是迭代耗竭图的一个例子。

[En]

This type of diagram is used to track the work that remains to be done in the unfinished items of the iteration. It analyzes the deviation from the ideal burnout diagram based on the work determined in iterative planning (see Section 6.4.2.8). Predictive trendlines can be used to predict deviations that may occur at the end of the iteration and the reasonable actions that should be taken during the iteration. In the burnout diagram, the ideal burnout situation is represented by diagonals, then the actual remaining work is drawn every day, and finally the trend line is calculated based on the remaining work to predict the completion. Figure 6-24 is an example of an iterative burnout diagram.

6.6
This chart tracks the work that remains to be completed in the iteration backlog. It is used to analyze the variance with respect to an ideal burndown based on the work committed from iteration planning (see Section 6.4.2.8). A forecast trend line can be used to predict the likely variance at iteration completion and take appropriate actions during the course of the iteration. A diagonal line representing the ideal burndown and daily actual remaining work is then plotted. A trend line is then calculated to forecast completion
based on remaining work. Figure 6-24 is an example of an iteration burndown chart.

; |16|自制和外购分析|12.1

12.1
自制或外包分析用于确定一项工作或交付成果是由项目团队完成还是应该从外部购买。在作出自制或外包决定时应考虑的因素包括组织目前的资源分配及其技能和能力、对专业知识的需求、不愿承担永久雇用义务以及对独特技术专长的需求；还应评估与每一项自制或外包决策相关的风险。

[En]

Homemade or outsourced analysis is used to determine whether a work or deliverable is best done by the project team or should be purchased from outside. Factors that should be taken into account when making homemade or outsourcing decisions include the organization's current allocation of resources and its skills and capabilities, the need for expertise, the unwillingness to undertake permanent employment obligations, and the need for unique technical expertise; also assess the risks associated with each homemade or outsourcing decision.

在自制或外购分析中，可以使用回收期、投资回报率（ROI）、内部报酬率 (IRR)、现金流贴现、净现值（NPV）、收益成本（BCA）或其他分析技术，来确定某种货物或服务是应该在项目内部自制，还是从外部购买。

12.1
A make-or-buy analysis is used to determine whether work or deliverables can best be accomplished by the project team or should be purchased from outside sources. Factors to consider in the make-or-buy decision include the organization's current resource allocation and their skills and abilities, the need for specialized expertise, the desire to not expand permanent employment obligations, and the need for independent expertise. It also includes evaluating the risks involved with each make-or-buy decision.

|17|绩效审查|6.6 8.3 9.6 12.3

6.6
绩效审查是指根据进度基准对进度绩效进行衡量、比较和分析，如实际开始和完成日期、完成百分比和当前工作的剩余持续时间。

[En]

Performance review refers to the measurement, comparison and analysis of progress performance based on progress benchmarks, such as actual start and finish dates, percentage completed, and remaining duration of the current work.

8.3
根据实际结果，绩效考核对规划质量管理过程中确定的质量衡量指标进行测量、比较和分析。

[En]

According to the actual results, the performance review measures, compares and analyzes the quality measurement indicators defined in the process of planning quality management.

9.6
绩效审查衡量、比较和分析计划资源使用与实际资源使用之间的差异。分析成本和进度绩效信息有助于识别可能影响资源使用的问题。

[En]

Performance review measures, compares, and analyzes the differences between planned and actual resource use. Analyzing cost and schedule performance information helps to identify problems that may affect the use of resources.

12.3
随着项目的进展，项目团队可以使用趋势分析来根据当前的绩效信息确定未来项目阶段所需的资源。趋势分析检查项目绩效如何随时间变化，并可用于确定绩效是在改善还是在恶化。

[En]

As the project progresses, the project team may use trend analysis to determine the resources required for future project phases based on current performance information. Trend analysis examines how project performance changes over time and can be used to determine whether performance is improving or deteriorating.

6.6
Performance reviews measure, compare, and analyze schedule performance against the schedule baseline such as actual start and finish dates, percent complete, and remaining duration for work in progress.

8.3
Performance reviews measure, compare, and analyze the quality metrics defined by the Plan Quality Management process against the actual results.

9.6
Performance reviews measure, compare, and analyze planned resource utilization to actual resource utilization. Cost and schedule work performance information can also be analyzed to help pinpoint issues that can influence resource utilization.

12.3
Performance reviews for contracts measure, compare, and analyze quality, resource, schedule, and cost performance against the agreement. This includes identifying work packages that are ahead or behind schedule, over or under budget, or have resource or quality issues.

|18|过程分析|8.2

8.2
过程分析可以识别过程改进的机会，并检查过程中遇到的问题、限制和非增值活动。

[En]

Process analysis can identify process improvement opportunities and examine problems, constraints, and non-value-added activities encountered during the process.

8.2
Process analysis identifies opportunities for process improvements. This analysis also examines problems, constraints, and non-value-added activities that occur during a process.

|19|建议书评价|12.2

12.2
对建议书进行评估，以确定它们是否对招标文件、采购工作说明书、供应商选择标准和招标包中包括的其他文件作出了完整和充分的回应。

[En]

The proposals are evaluated to determine whether they have made a complete and adequate response to the tender documents, procurement statements of work, supplier selection criteria and other documents included in the tender package.

12.2
Proposals are evaluated to ensure they are complete and respond in full to the bid documents, procurement statement of work, source selection criteria, and any other documents that went out in the bid package.

|20|回归分析|4.7

4.7
该技术分析了不同项目变量对项目结果的影响关系，以提高未来项目的绩效。

[En]

The technology analyzes the relationship between different project variables acting on project results in order to improve the performance of future projects.

4.8
This technique analyzes the interrelationships between different project variables that contributed to the project outcomes to improve performance on future projects.

|21|储备分析|6.4 7.2 7.3 7.4 11.7

6.4
储备分析用于确定项目所需的应急储备和管理储备。在估计持续时间时，需要考虑应急储备(有时称为“时间表储备”)，以处理时间表的不确定性。应急准备金是进度基准中包括的一个期限，用于处理已被接受的已查明的风险。应急储备与“已知-未知”的风险有关，需要合理估计才能完成未知的工作量。应急储备占活动预计时长的一定比例或固定时间，也可以从每项活动中剥离应急储备汇总。随着项目信息变得更加清晰，应急储备可以使用、减少或取消，应急储备应在项目进度文件中明确列出。您还可以估算项目进度管理所需的管理储备量。管理准备金是专门为管理控制而预留的项目预算，用于处理项目范围内不可预见的工作。管理准备金用于应对影响项目的“未知-未知”风险，不包括在进度基准中，但属于项目总工期的一部分。根据合同条款，使用管理准备金可能需要改变进度基准。

[En]

The reserve analysis is used to determine the emergency reserves and management reserves required by the project. When estimating duration, emergency reserves (sometimes referred to as "schedule reserves") need to be taken into account to deal with schedule uncertainties. A contingency reserve is a duration included in the progress benchmark to deal with identified risks that have been accepted. Emergency reserves are related to "known-unknown" risks and need to be reasonably estimated to complete unknown workloads. The emergency reserve takes a certain percentage or a fixed period of time of the estimated duration of the activity, and the emergency reserve can also be stripped out of each activity and summarized. As the project information becomes clearer and the emergency reserve can be used, reduced or cancelled, the emergency reserve should be clearly listed in the project progress document. You can also estimate the amount of management reserves required for project schedule management. Management reserve is a project budget specially set aside for the purpose of management control to deal with unforeseen work in the scope of the project. The management reserve is used to deal with the "unknown-unknown" risks that affect the project, which is not included in the schedule benchmark, but is part of the total duration of the project. Depending on the terms of the contract, the use of the management reserve may require a change in the progress benchmark.

7.2
为应对成本的不确定性，成本估算中可以包括应急储备（有时称为"应急费用"）。应急储备是包含在成本基准内的一部分预算，用来应对已识别的风险；应急储备还通常是预算的一部分，用来应对那些会影响项目的"已知 — 未知"风险。例如，可以预知有些项目可交付成果需要返工，却不知道返工的工作量是多少。可以预留应急储备来应对这些未知数量的返工工作。小至某个具体活动，大到整个项目，任何层级都可有其应急储备。应急储备可取成本估算值的某一百分比、某个固定值，或者通过定量分析来确定；而随着项目信息越来越明确，可以动用、减少或取消应急储备。应该在成本文件中清楚地列出应急储备。应急储备是成本基准的一部分，也是项目整体资金需求的一部分。
7.3
可用于预算编制过程的数据分析技术包括但不限于可建立项目管理储备的储备分析。管理准备金是专门为管理控制目的预留的项目预算，用于应对项目范围内不可预见的工作，应对将影响项目的“未知-未知”风险。管理准备金不包括在费用基线中，但属于总体项目预算和供资要求的一部分。在使用管理准备金为不可预见的工作提供资金时，有必要将使用的管理准备金计入成本基础，从而导致成本基础发生变化。

[En]

Data analysis techniques that can be used in the budgeting process include, but are not limited to, reserve analysis that can establish project management reserves. The management reserve is the project budget specially set aside for the purpose of management control, which is used to deal with the unforeseen work in the project scope, and to deal with the "unknown-unknown" risks that will affect the project. Management reserves are not included in the cost baseline but are part of the overall project budget and funding requirements. When using management reserves to finance unforeseen work, it is necessary to add the management reserves used to the cost base, resulting in a change in the cost base.

7.4
在成本控制过程中，可以通过储备分析来监控项目中应急储备和管理储备的使用情况，以确定是否还需要这些储备或是否需要额外的储备。与项目工作人员一起

[En]

In the process of cost control, reserve analysis can be used to monitor the use of emergency reserves and management reserves in the project, so as to determine whether these reserves are still needed or whether additional reserves are needed. With the project worker

关于取得的进展，这些准备金可能已按计划用于支付风险或其他紧急情况的成本；相反，如果抓住机会节省成本，节省的资金可能会加入应急储备，或作为利润/利润从项目中剥离。如果确定的风险没有发生，可以从项目预算中扣除未使用的应急储备，以腾出资源用于其他项目或运营。同时，项目中的进一步风险分析可能会发现，需要为项目预算申请额外准备金。

[En]

With regard to the progress made, these reserves may have been used as planned to cover the costs of risks or other emergencies; conversely, if opportunities are seized to save costs, the savings may be added to the emergency reserves, or stripped from the project as profits / profits. If the identified risk does not occur, unused emergency reserves may be deducted from the project budget to free up resources for other projects or operations. At the same time, further risk analysis in the project may find that additional reserves need to be requested for the project budget.

11.7
一些个别项目风险可能发生在项目实施的整个过程，对预算和进度应急准备金产生积极或消极的影响。准备金分析是指将剩余应急准备金与项目任意点的剩余风险进行比较，以确定剩余准备金是否仍然合理。各种图表，如燃尽图，可以用来显示应急储备的消耗情况。

[En]

Some individual project risks may occur throughout the implementation of the project, which have a positive or negative impact on the budget and schedule contingency reserve. Reserve analysis refers to comparing the remaining emergency reserve with the remaining risk at any point in the project, so as to determine whether the remaining reserve is still reasonable. Various graphs, such as burnout diagrams, can be used to show the consumption of emergency reserves.

6.4
Reserve analysis is used to determine the amount of contingency and management reserve needed for the project. Duration estimates may include contingency reserves, sometimes referred to as schedule reserves, to account for schedule uncertainty. Contingency reserves are the estimated duration within the schedule baseline, which is allocated for identified risks that are accepted. Contingency reserves are associated with the known-unknowns, which may be estimated to account for this unknown amount of rework. The contingency reserve may be a percentage of the estimated activity duration or a fixed number of work periods. Contingency reserves may be separated from the individual activities and aggregated. As more precise information about the project becomes available, the contingency reserve may be used, reduced, or eliminated. Contingency should be clearly identified in the schedule documentation.

Estimates may also be produced for the amount of management reserve of schedule for the project. Management reserves are a specified amount of the project budget withheld for management control purposes and are reserved for unforeseen work that is within scope of the project. Management reserves are intended to address the unknown-unknowns that can affect a project. Management reserve is not included in the schedule baseline, but it is part of the overall project duration requirements. Depending on contract terms, use of management
reserves may require a change to the schedule baseline.

7.2
Cost estimates may include contingency reserves (sometimes called contingency allowances) to account for cost uncertainty. Contingency reserves are the budget within the cost baseline that is allocated for identified risks. Contingency reserves are often viewed as the part of the budget intended to address the knownunknowns that can affect a project. For example, rework for some project deliverables could be anticipated, while the amount of this rework is unknown. Contingency reserves may be estimated to account for this unknown
amount of rework. Contingency reserves can be provided at any level from the specific activity to the entire project. The contingency reserve may be a percentage of the estimated cost, a fixed number, or may be developed by using quantitative analysis methods.

As more precise information about the project becomes available, the contingency reserve may be used, reduced, or eliminated. Contingency should be clearly identified in cost documentation. Contingency reserves are part of the cost baseline and the overall funding requirements for the project.

7.3
A data analysis technique that can be used in the Determine Budget process includes but is not limited to reserve analysis, which can establish the management reserves for the project. Management reserves are an amount of the project budget withheld for management control purposes and are reserved for unforeseen work that is within scope of the project. Management reserves are intended to address the unknown unknowns that can affect a project. The management reserve is not included in the cost baseline but is part of the overall project budget and funding requirements. When an amount of management reserves is used to fund unforeseen work, the amount of management reserve used is added to the cost baseline, thus requiring an approved change to the cost baseline.

7.4
During cost control, reserve analysis is used to monitor the status of contingency and management reserves for the project to determine if these reserves are still needed or if additional reserves need to be requested. As work on the project progresses, these reserves may be used as planned to cover the cost of risk responses or other contingencies. Conversely, when opportunities are captured and resulting in cost savings, funds may be added to the contingency amount, or taken from the project as margin/profit.

If the identified risks do not occur, the unused contingency reserves may be removed from the project budget to free up resources for other projects or operations. Additional risk analysis during the project may reveal a need to request that additional reserves be added to the project budget.

11.7
Throughout execution of the project, some individual project risks may occur with positive or negative impacts on budget or schedule contingency reserves. Reserve analysis compares the amount of the contingency reserves remaining to the amount of risk remaining at any time in the project in order to determine if the remaining reserve is adequate. This may be communicated using various graphical representations, including a burndown chart.

|22|风险数据质量评估|11.3

11.3
风险数据是定性风险分析的基础。风险数据质量评价的目的是评价单个项目风险数据的准确性和可靠性。使用低质量的风险数据可能会导致定性的风险分析

[En]

Risk data is the basis of qualitative risk analysis. The purpose of risk data quality assessment is to evaluate the accuracy and reliability of data about the risk of a single project. The use of low-quality risk data may lead to qualitative risk analysis

就这个项目而言，它基本上是毫无用处的。如果数据质量令人无法接受，可能需要收集更好的数据。我们可以进行问卷调查，了解项目利益相关者对数据质量的各个方面的评价，包括数据的完整性、客观性、相关性和及时性，然后对风险数据的质量进行综合评估。这些方面的加权平均值可以计算为数据质量的总体分数。

[En]

It's basically useless in terms of the project. If the quality of the data is unacceptable, better data may need to be collected. We can conduct a questionnaire survey to understand the project stakeholders' evaluation of all aspects of data quality, including the integrity, objectivity, relevance and timeliness of the data, and then comprehensively evaluate the quality of the risk data. The weighted averages of these aspects can be calculated as the overall score of the data quality.

11.3
Risk data quality assessment evaluates the degree to which the data about individual project risks is accurate and reliable as a basis for qualitative risk analysis. The use of low-quality risk data may lead to a qualitative risk analysis that is of little use to the project. If data quality is unacceptable, it may be necessary to gather better data. Risk data quality may be assessed via a questionnaire measuring the project's stakeholder perceptions of various characteristics, which may include completeness, objectivity, relevancy, and timeliness. A weighted average of selected data quality characteristics can then be generated to give an overall quality score.

|23|风险概率和影响评估|11.3

11.3
风险概率评估考虑特定风险的可能性，而风险影响评估考虑风险对一个或多个项目目标的潜在影响，如进度、成本、质量或绩效。威胁会带来负面影响，机会会产生积极影响。对每个已确定的单个项目风险进行概率和影响评估。风险评估可以采取面谈或会议的形式，参与者将取决于他们对风险登记册中记录的风险类型的熟悉程度。项目团队成员和项目外的高级人员应参加面试或会议。在面谈或会议期间，评估每个风险的可能性水平及其对每个目标的影响程度。如果有关各方对概率水平和影响程度的感知存在差异，则应讨论差异。此外，还应记录适当的说明性细节，例如确定概率或影响程度的假设。风险管理计划(表11-1)中的概率和影响定义应用于评估风险的概率和影响。低概率和低影响的风险将被列入风险登记册的观察名单，以供未来监测。

[En]

The risk probability assessment considers the possibility of a particular risk, while the risk impact assessment considers the potential impact of the risk on one or more project objectives, such as schedule, cost, quality, or performance. Threats will have a negative impact and opportunities will have a positive impact. Probability and impact assessments are conducted for each identified individual project risk. Risk assessment may take the form of interviews or meetings and participants will depend on their familiarity with the types of risks recorded in the risk register. Project team members and senior staff outside the project should attend interviews or meetings. During interviews or meetings, assess the level of probability of each risk and its level of impact on each goal. If there are differences in the perception of the probability level and the level of influence of the relevant parties, the differences should be discussed. In addition, appropriate illustrative details should be recorded, such as the assumptions on which the level of probability or level of influence is determined. The probability and impact definitions in the risk management plan (Table 11-1) should be used to assess the probability and impact of the risk. The risk of low probability and impact will be included in the watch list in the risk register for future monitoring.

11.3
Risk probability assessment considers the likelihood that a specific risk will occur. Risk impact assessment considers the potential effect on one or more project objectives such as schedule, cost, quality, or performance. Impacts will be negative for threats and positive for opportunities. Probability and impact are assessed for each identified individual project risk. Risks can be assessed in interviews or meetings with participants selected for their familiarity with the types of risk recorded in the risk register. Project team members and knowledgeable persons external to the project are included. The level of probability for each risk and its impact on each objective are evaluated during the interview or meeting. Differences in the levels of probability and impact perceived by stakeholders are to be expected, and such differences should be explored. Explanatory detail, including assumptions justifying the levels assigned, are also recorded. Risk probabilities and impacts are assessed using the definitions given in the risk management plan (see Table 11-1). Risks with low probability and impact may be included within the risk register as part
of a watch list for future monitoring.

|24|根本原因分析||4.5 8.2 8.3 11.2 13.2 13.4

4.5
根本原因分析侧重于确定问题的主要原因，可用于确定偏差的原因以及项目经理为实现项目目标而应重点关注的领域。

[En]

Root cause analysis focuses on identifying the main causes of the problem, which can be used to identify the causes of deviations and areas that project managers should focus on in order to achieve project objectives.

8.2
根本原因分析是一种分析技术，用于确定偏差、缺陷或风险的根本原因。一个根本原因可能会导致多个偏差、缺陷或风险。根本原因分析也可以用作确定问题根本原因并解决问题的一种技术。消除所有根源可以防止问题再次发生。

[En]

Root cause analysis is an analytical technique to determine the root causes of deviations, defects, or risks. One root cause may cause multiple deviations, defects, or risks. Root cause analysis can also be used as a technique to identify the root cause of the problem and solve the problem. Eliminating all root causes can prevent problems from happening again.

8.3
根本原因分析用于识别缺陷成因。
11.2
根本原因分析（见 8.2.2.2 节）常用于发现导致问题的深层原因并制定预防措施。可以用问题陈述（如项目可能延误或超支）作为出发点，来探讨哪些威胁可能导致该问题，从而识别出相应的威胁。也可以用收益陈述（如提前交付或低于预算）作为出发点，来探讨哪些机会可能有利于实现该效益，从而识别出相应的机会。
13.2
进行根本原因分析，找出导致项目获得一定程度支持的根本原因，以便选择适当的战略来提高他们的参与水平。

[En]

Conduct root cause analysis to identify the root cause that leads to a certain level of support for the project, in order to choose appropriate strategies to improve their level of participation.

13.4
开展根本原因分析，确定相关方参与未达预期效果的根本原因。
4.5
Root cause analysis focuses on identifying the main reasons of a problem. It can be used to identify the reasons for a deviation and the areas the project manager should focus on in order to achieve the objectives of the project.

8.2
Root cause analysis is an analytical technique used to determine the basic underlying reason that causes a variance, defect, or risk. A root cause may underlie more than one variance, defect, or risk. It may also be used as a technique for identifying root causes of a problem and solving them. When all root causes for a problem are removed, the problem does not recur.

8.3
Root cause analysis is used to identify the source of defects.

11.2
Root cause analysis (see Section 8.2.2.2) is typically used to discover the underlying causes that lead to a problem, and develop preventive action. It can be used to identify threats by starting with a problem statement (for example, the project might be delayed or over budget) and exploring which threats might result in that problem occurring. The same technique can be used to find opportunities by starting with a benefit statement (for example, early delivery or under budget) and exploring which opportunities might result in that benefit being realized.

13.2
Root cause analysis identifies underlying reasons for the level of support of project stakeholders in order to select the appropriate strategy to improve their level of engagement.

13.4
A root cause analysis can be used to determine the basic underlying reason that stakeholder engagement is not having the planned effect.

|25|敏感性分析|11.4

11.4
敏感度分析有助于确定哪些个别项目风险或其他不确定因素对项目结果的潜在影响最大。在定量风险分析模型中建立了项目结果变化与因素变化之间的关系。

[En]

Sensitivity analysis helps to determine which individual project risks or other sources of uncertainty have the greatest potential impact on project results. It establishes the relationship between the variation of project results and the factor variation in the quantitative risk analysis model.

敏感性分析的结果通常以龙卷风为代表。在该图中，标明了定量风险分析模型的各个要素与其可能影响的项目结果之间的相关系数。这些要素可以包括个别项目风险、不稳定的项目活动或特定的不确定性来源。每个元素按照关联强度的降序排列，形成典型的龙卷风形状。有关龙卷风的例子，请参见下图。

[En]

The results of sensitivity analysis are usually represented by tornadoes. In this diagram, the correlation coefficient between each element of the quantitative risk analysis model and the project results that it can affect is marked. These elements can include individual project risks, volatile project activities, or specific sources of uncertainty. Each element is arranged in descending order of association intensity to form a typical tornado shape. For an example of a tornado, see the following picture.

11.4
One typical display of sensitivity analysis is the tornado diagram, which presents the calculated correlation coefficient for each element of the quantitative risk analysis model that can influence the project outcome. This can include individual project risks, project activities with high degrees of variability, or specific sources of ambiguity. Items are ordered by descending strength of correlation, giving the typical tornado appearance. An example tornado diagram is shown in following.

Sensitivity analysis helps to determine which individual project risks or other sources of uncertainty have the most potential impact on project outcomes. It correlates variations in project outcomes with variations in elements of the quantitative risk analysis model.

; |26|模拟|6.5 11.4

6.5
模拟是对单个项目的其他风险和不确定性来源进行建模的一种方式，以评估它们对项目目标的潜在影响。最常用的模拟技术是蒙特卡罗分析(见第11.4.2.5节)，它使用风险和其他不确定资源来计算整个项目可能的进度结果。模拟包括基于各种不同的活动假设、约束、风险、问题或场景，使用其他形式的概率分布和不确定性来计算各种可能的工作包持续时间(见第11.4.2.4节)。图6-18显示了项目的概率分布，表明了达到特定目标日期(即项目完成日期)的可能性。在本例中，项目按时完成或在目标日期5月13日之前完成的可能性为10%，而在5月28日之前完成的可能性为90%。

[En]

Simulation is a way to model other sources of risk and uncertainty of a single project to assess their potential impact on project objectives. The most common simulation technique is Monte Carlo analysis (see Section 11.4.2.5), which uses risks and other uncertain resources to calculate the possible progress results of the entire project. The simulation includes calculating a variety of possible work package durations based on a variety of different activity assumptions, constraints, risks, problems, or scenarios, using other forms of probability distribution and uncertainty (see section 11.4.2.4). Figure 6-18 shows the probability distribution of a project, indicating the possibility of achieving a specific target date (that is, the project completion date). In this example, the probability that the project will be completed on time or before the target date, May 13, is 10%, while the probability of completion by May 28 is 90%.

有关如何在进度模型中使用蒙特卡罗模拟的详细信息，请参阅《进度计划实践标准》。

[En]

For more information about how the Monte Carlo simulation is used in the schedule model, see the schedule Planning practice Standard.

11.4
在定量风险分析中，模型被用来模拟单个项目风险和其他不确定性来源的组合影响，以评估它们对项目目标的潜在影响。模拟中通常采用蒙特卡罗分析方法。在成本风险的蒙特卡罗分析中，项目成本估算作为模拟的输入；在进度风险的蒙特卡罗分析中，进度网络图和工期估计作为模拟的输入。在进行全面的定量成本-进度风险分析时，同时使用这两个输入。其输出是定量的风险分析模型。

[En]

In quantitative risk analysis, models are used to simulate the combined impact of individual project risks and other sources of uncertainty to assess their potential impact on project objectives. Monte Carlo analysis is usually used in the simulation. In the Monte Carlo analysis of the cost risk, the project cost estimation is used as the input of the simulation; in the Monte Carlo analysis of the schedule risk, the schedule network diagram and duration estimation are used as the input of the simulation. These two inputs are used simultaneously when conducting a comprehensive quantitative cost-schedule risk analysis. Its output is the quantitative risk analysis model.

用计算机软件数千次迭代运行定量风险分析模型。每次运行，都要随机选择输入值（如成本估算、持续时间估算或概率分支发生频率）。这些运行的输出构成了项目可能结果（如项目结束日期、项目完工成本）的区间。典型的输出包括：表示模拟得到特定结果的次数的直方图，或表示获得等于或小于特定数值的结果的累积概率分布曲线（S 曲线）。蒙特卡洛成本风险分析所得到的 S 曲线示例，见下图。

在定量进度风险分析中，还可以执行关键分析，以确定风险模型的哪些活动对项目的关键路径影响最大。计算风险模型中每个活动的关键指标，即活动在所有模拟中在关键路径上出现的频率，通常以百分比表示。通过批判性分析，项目团队将能够专注于那些对项目总体进度绩效具有最大潜在影响的活动。

[En]

In quantitative schedule risk analysis, critical analysis can also be performed to determine which activities of the risk model have the greatest impact on the critical path of the project. Calculate key indicators for each activity in the risk model, that is, how often the activity occurs on the critical path in all simulations, usually expressed as a percentage. Through critical analysis, the project team will be able to focus on those activities that have the greatest potential impact on the overall schedule performance of the project.

6.5
Simulation models the combined effects of individual project risks and other sources of uncertainty to evaluate their potential impact on achieving project objectives. The most common simulation technique is Monte Carlo analysis (see Section 11.4.2.5), in which risks and other sources of uncertainty are used to calculate possible schedule outcomes for the total project. Simulation involves calculating multiple work package durations with different sets of activity assumptions, constraints, risks, issues, or scenarios using probability distributions and other representations of uncertainty (see Section 11.4.2.4). Figure 6-18 shows a probability distribution for a project with the probability of achieving a certain target date (i.e., project finish date). In this example, there is a 10% probability that the project will finish on or before the target date of May 13, while there is a 90% probability of completing the project by May 28.

For more information on how Monte Carlo simulation is used for schedule models, see the Practice Standard for Scheduling.

11.4
Quantitative risk analysis uses a model that simulates the combined effects of individual project risks and other sources of uncertainty to evaluate their potential impact on achieving project objectives. Simulations are typically performed using a Monte Carlo analysis. When running a Monte Carlo analysis for cost risk, the simulation uses the project cost estimates. When running a Monte Carlo analysis for schedule risk, the schedule network diagram and duration estimates are used. An integrated quantitative cost-schedule risk analysis uses both inputs. The output is a quantitative risk analysis model.

Computer software is used to iterate the quantitative risk analysis model several thousand times. The input values (e.g., cost estimates, duration estimates, or occurrence of probabilistic branches) are chosen at random for each iteration. Outputs represent the range of possible outcomes for the project (e.g., project end date, project cost at completion). Typical outputs include a histogram presenting the number of iterations where a particular outcome resulted from the simulation, or a cumulative probability distribution (S-curve) representing the probability of achieving any particular outcome or less. An example S-curve from a Monte Carlo cost risk analysis is shown in Figure 11-13.

For a quantitative schedule risk analysis, it is also possible to conduct a criticality analysis that determines which elements of the risk model have the greatest effect on the project critical path. A criticality index is calculated for each element in the risk model, which gives the frequency with which that element appears on the critical path during the simulation, usually expressed as a percentage. The output from a criticality analysis allows the project team to focus risk response planning efforts on those activities with the highest potential effect on the overall schedule performance of the project.

|27|相关方分析|11.1 13.1 13.4

11.1
可用于本过程的数据分析技术包括（但不限于）相关方分析（见 13.1.2.3 节）。可通过相关方分析确定项目相关方的风险偏好。
13.1
利益相关者分析生成相关方的列表和有关相关方的各种信息，例如在组织中的位置、在项目中的角色、对项目的兴趣、期望、态度(对项目的支持程度)和对项目信息的兴趣。利害关系方的利益可包括但不限于以下各项的组合：

[En]

Stakeholder analysis produces a list of interested parties and a variety of information about relevant parties, such as location within the organization, role in the project, interest in the project, expectations, attitude (level of support for the project), and interest in project information. The interests of interested parties may include, but are not limited to, a combination of the following:

• 兴趣。 个人或群体会受与项目有关的决策或成果的影响。
• 权利（合法权利或道德权利）。 国家的法律框架可能已就相关方的合法权利做出规定，如职业健康和安全。道德权利可能涉及保护历史遗迹或环境的可持续性。
• 所有权。 人员或群体对资产或财产拥有的法定所有权。
• 知识。 专业知识有助于更有效地达成项目目标和组织成果，或有助于了解组织的权力结构，从而有益于项目。
• 贡献。 提供资金或其他资源，包括人力资源，或者以无形方式为项目提供支持，例如，宣传项目目标，或在项目与组织权力结构及政治之间扮演缓冲角色。

13.4
进行利益相关者分析，以确定感兴趣的各方团体和个人在项目任何特定时间的状态。

[En]

Conduct stakeholder analysis to determine the status of interested party groups and individuals at any particular time of the project.

11.1
Data analysis techniques that can be used for this process includes but are not limited to a stakeholder analysis (Section 13.1.2.3) to determine the risk appetite of project stakeholders.

13.1
Stakeholder analysis results in a list of stakeholders and relevant information such as
their positions in the organization, roles on the project, "stakes," expectations, attitudes (their levels of support for the project), and their interest in information about the project. Stakeholders' stakes can include but are not limited to a combination of:

• Interest. A person or group can be affected by a decision related to the project or its outcomes.

• Rights (legal or moral rights). Legal rights, such as occupational health and safety, may be defined in the legislation framework of a country. Moral rights may involve concepts of protection of historical sites or environmental sustainability.

• Ownership. A person or group has a legal title to an asset or a property.

• Knowledge. Specialist knowledge, which can benefit the project through more effective delivery of project objectives, organizational outcomes, or knowledge of the power structures of the organization.

• Contribution. Provision of funds or other resources, including human resources, or providing support for the project in more intangible ways, such as advocacy in the form of promoting the objectives of the project or acting as a buffer between the project and the power structures of the organization and its politics.

13.4
The stakeholder analysis helps to determine the position of stakeholder groups and individuals at any particular time in the project.

|28|SWOT分析|11.2

11.2
这是对项目的优势、劣势、机会和威胁 (SWOT) 进行逐个检查。在识别风险时，它会将内部产生的风险包含在内，从而拓宽识别风险的范围。首先，关注项目、组织或一般业务领域，识别出组织的优势和劣势；然后，找出组织优势可能为项目带来的机会，组织劣势可能造成的威胁。还可以分析组织优势能在多大程度上克服威胁，组织劣势是否会妨碍机会的产生。

11.2
This technique examines the project from each of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) perspectives. For risk identification, it is used to increase the breadth of identified risks by including internally generated risks. The technique starts with the identification of strengths and weaknesses of the organization, focusing on either the project, organization, or the business area in general. SWOT analysis then identifies any opportunities for the project that may arise from strengths, and any threats resulting from weaknesses. The analysis also examines the degree to which organizational strengths may offset threats and determines if weaknesses might hinder opportunities.

|29|技术绩效分析|11.7

进行技术性能分析，将项目实施过程中取得的技术成果与计划进行比较，取得相关技术成果。它要求界定技术绩效的客观和定量衡量标准，以便将实际结果与计划要求进行比较。技术绩效衡量指标可包括：重量、处理时间、缺陷数量、存储容量等。实际结果偏离计划的程度可以代表威胁或机会的潜在影响。

[En]

Conduct technical performance analysis and compare the technical results achieved during the implementation of the project with the plans to achieve relevant technical results. It requires the definition of objective and quantitative measures of technical performance in order to compare actual results with planned requirements. Technical performance measurement indicators may include: weight, processing time, number of defects, storage capacity, etc. The extent to which the actual results deviate from the plan can represent the potential impact of threats or opportunities.

Technical performance analysis compares technical accomplishments during project execution to the schedule of technical achievement. It requires the definition of objective, quantifiable measures of technical performance, which can be used to compare actual results against targets. Such technical performance measures may include weight, transaction times, number of delivered defects, storage capacity, etc. Deviation can indicate the potential impact of threats or opportunities.

|30|趋势分析|4.5，4.7，5.6，6.6，7.4，9.6，12.3

4.5
趋势分析根据之前的结果预测未来的绩效，可以预测项目延误，并根据既定的趋势让项目经理意识到后期可能出现的问题。趋势分析应该及早进行，以便项目团队有时间分析和纠正任何异常情况。根据趋势分析的结果，可以提出必要的预防措施。

[En]

Trend analysis predicts future performance based on previous results, which can predict project delays and make the project manager aware of the problems that may occur in the later stage according to the established trend. Trend analysis should be done early enough to give the project team time to analyze and correct any anomalies. According to the results of trend analysis, necessary preventive measures can be put forward.

4.7
趋势分析可以用来确认本组织使用的模型的有效性，并为未来的项目相应地调整模型。

[En]

Trend analysis can be used to confirm the effectiveness of the model used by the organization and to adjust the model accordingly for future projects.

5.6
趋势分析的目的是审查项目绩效随时间的变化，以确定绩效是在改善还是在恶化。

[En]

The purpose of trend analysis is to review how project performance changes over time to determine whether performance is improving or deteriorating.

6.6
趋势分析检查项目绩效如何随时间变化，以确定绩效是在改善还是在恶化。图形分析技术有助于了解迄今的绩效，并将其与未来的绩效目标(表示为完成日期)进行比较。

[En]

Trend analysis examines how project performance changes over time to determine whether performance is improving or deteriorating. Graphical analysis techniques help to understand the performance to date and compare it with future performance targets (expressed as completion dates).

7.4
趋势分析旨在审查项目绩效随时间的变化情况，以判断绩效是正在改善还是正在恶化。图形分析技术有助于了解截至目前的绩效情况，并把发展趋势与未来的绩效目标进行比较，如 BAC 与EAC、预测完工日期与计划完工日期的比较。趋势分析技术包括（但不限于）：

• 图表。
  在挣值分析中，对计划价值、挣值和实际成本这三个参数，既可以分阶段（通常以周或月为单位）进行监督和报告，也可以针对累计值进行监督和报告。图 7-12 以 S 曲线展示了某个项目的 EV 数据，该项目预算超支且进度落后。
  
• 预测。
  随着项目进展，项目团队可根据项目绩效，对完工估算（EAC）进行预测，预测的结
  果可能与完工预算（BAC）存在差异。如果 BAC 已明显不再可行，则项目经理应考虑对EAC进行预测。预测EAC是根据当前掌握的绩效信息和其他知识，预计项目未来的情况和事件。预测要根据项目执行过程中所提供的工作绩效数据（见 4.3.3.2 节）来产生、更新和重新发布。工作绩效信息包含项目过去的绩效，以及可能在未来对项目产生影响的任何信息。在计算 EAC 时，通常用已完成工作的实际成本，加上剩余工作的完工尚需估算（ETC）。项目团队要根据已有的经验，考虑实施 ETC 工作可能遇到的各种情况。把挣值分析与手工预测 EAC 方法联合起来使用，效果会更佳。由项目经理和项目团队手工进行的自下而上汇总方法，就是一种最普通的 EAC 预测方法。
  项目经理所进行的自下而上的 EAC 估算，就是以已完成工作的实际成本为基础，并根据已积累的经验来为剩余项目工作编制一个新估算。公式： EAC = AC + 自下而上的 ETC。可以很方便地把项目经理手工估算的 EAC 与计算得出的一系列 EAC 作比较，这些计算得出的EAC 代表了不同的风险情景。在计算 EAC 值时，经常会使用累计 CPI 和累计 SPI 值。尽管可以用许多方法来计算基于 EVM 数据的 EAC 值，但下面只介绍最常用的三种方法：
• 假设将按预算单价完成 ETC 工作。 这种方法承认以实际成本表示的累计实际项目绩效（不论好坏），并预计未来的全部 ETC 工作都将按预算单价完成。如果目前的实际绩效不好，则只有在进行项目风险分析并取得有力证据后，才能做出"未来绩效将会改进"的假设。公式： EAC = AC +（BAC – EV）。
• 假设以当前 CPI 完成 ETC 工作。 这种方法假设项目将按截至目前的情况继续进行，即 ETC工作将按项目截至目前的累计成本绩效指数（CPI）实施。 公式： EAC = BAC/CPI。
• 假设 SPI 与 CPI 将同时影响 ETC 工作。 在这种预测中，需要计算一个由成本绩效指数与进度绩效指数综合决定的效率指标，并假设 ETC 工作将按该效率指标完成。如果项目进度对 ETC 有重要影响，这种方法最有效。使用这种方法时，还可以根据项目经理的判断，分别给 CPI 和 SPI 赋予不同的权重，如 80/20、 50/50 或其他比率。公式： EAC =AC +［（BAC – EV）/（CPI x SPI）］。

9.6
随着项目的进展，项目团队可以使用趋势分析来根据当前的绩效信息确定未来项目阶段所需的资源。趋势分析检查项目绩效如何随时间变化，并可用于确定绩效是在改善还是在恶化。

[En]

As the project progresses, the project team may use trend analysis to determine the resources required for future project phases based on current performance information. Trend analysis examines how project performance changes over time and can be used to determine whether performance is improving or deteriorating.

12.3
趋势分析可用于编制关于成本绩效的完工估算 (EAC)，以确定绩效是正在改善还是恶化。关于完工估算方法的详细信息。

4.5
Trend analysis is used to forecast future performance based on past results. It looks ahead in the project for expected slippages and warns the project manager ahead of time that there may be problems later in the schedule if established trends persist. This information is made available early enough in the project timeline to give the project team time to analyze and correct any anomalies. The results of trend analysis can be used to recommend preventive actions if necessary.

4.7
Trend analysis can be used to validate the models used in the organization and to implement adjustments for future projects.

5.6
Trend analysis examines project performance over time to determine if performance is improving or deteriorating.

6.6
Trend analysis examines project performance over time to determine whether performance is improving or deteriorating. Graphical analysis techniques are valuable for understanding performance to date and for comparing to future performance goals in the form of completion dates.

7.4
rend analysis examines project performance over time to determine if performance is improving or deteriorating. Graphical analysis techniques are valuable for understanding performance to date and for comparison to future performance goals in the form of BAC versus estimate at completion (EAC) and completion dates. Examples of the trend analysis techniques include but are not limited to:

• Charts. In earned value analysis, three parameters of planned value, earned value, and actual cost can be monitored and reported on both a period-by-period basis (typically weekly or monthly) and on a cumulative basis. Figure 7-12 uses S-curves to display EV data for a project that is performing over budget and behind the schedule.

* Forecasting. As the project progresses, the project team may develop a forecast for the estimate at completion (EAC) that may differ from the budget at completion (BAC) based on the project performance. If it becomes obvious that the BAC is no longer viable, the project manager should consider the forecasted EAC. Forecasting the EAC involves making projections of conditions and events in the project's future based on current performance information and other knowledge available at the time of the forecast. Forecasts are generated, updated, and reissued based on work performance data (Section 4.3.3.2) that is provided as the project is
executed. The work performance information covers the project's past performance and any information that could impact the project in the future.

EACs are typically based on the actual costs incurred for work completed, plus an estimate to complete (ETC) the remaining work. It is incumbent on the project team to predict what it may encounter to perform the ETC, based on its experience to date. Earned value analysis works well in conjunction with manual forecasts of the required EAC costs. The most common EAC forecasting approach is a manual, bottom-up summation by the project manager and project team.

The project manager's bottom-up EAC method builds upon the actual costs and experience incurred for the work completed, and requires a new estimate to complete the remaining project work. Equation: EAC = AC + Bottom-up ETC.

The project manager's manual EAC is quickly compared with a range of calculated EACs representing various risk scenarios. When calculating EAC values, the cumulative CPI and SPI values are typically used. While EVM data quickly provide many statistical EACs, only three of the more common methods are described as follows:
EAC forecast for ETC work performed at the budgeted rate. This EAC method accepts the actual project performance to date (whether favorable or unfavorable) as represented by the actual costs, and predicts that all future ETC work will be accomplished at the budgeted rate. When actual performance is unfavorable, the assumption that future performance will improve should be accepted only when supported by project risk analysis. Equation: EAC = AC + (BAC – EV).

EAC forecast for ETC work performed at the present CPI. This method assumes that what the project has experienced to date can be expected to continue in the future. The ETC work is assumed to be performed at the same cumulative cost performance index (CPI) as that incurred by the project to date. Equation: EAC = BAC / CPI.

EAC forecast for ETC work considering both SPI and CPI factors. In this forecast, the ETC work will be performed at an efficiency rate that considers both the cost and schedule performance indices. This method is most useful when the project schedule is a factor impacting the ETC effort. Variations of this method weight the CPI and SPI at different values (e.g., 80/20, 50/50, or some other ratio) according to the project manager's judgment. Equation: EAC = AC + [(BAC – EV) / (CPI × SPI)].

9.6
As the project progresses, the project team may use trend analysis, based on current performance information, to determine the resources needed at upcoming stages of the project.

Trend analysis examines project performance over time and can be used to determine whether performance is improving or deteriorating.

12.3
Trend analysis can develop a forecast estimate at completion (EAC) for cost performance to see if performance is improving or deteriorating. See 7.4.2.2 for more detail on EAC methods.

; |31|偏差分析|4.5，4.7，5.6，6.6，7.4

4.5
偏差分析检查目标性能和实际性能之间的差异(或偏差)，这可能涉及持续时间估计、成本估计、资源使用、资源率、技术性能和其他衡量指标。

[En]

Deviation analysis examines the difference (or deviation) between target performance and actual performance, which can involve duration estimates, cost estimates, resource usage, resource rates, technical performance, and other measurement indicators.

可以对每个知识领域中的特定变量进行偏差分析。在项目监控过程中，通过偏差分析，对成本、时间、技术、资源的偏差进行综合分析，以了解项目的整体偏差。这使得采取适当的预防或纠正措施变得容易。

[En]

Deviation analysis can be carried out for specific variables in each area of knowledge. In the process of monitoring the project, the deviation of cost, time, technology and resources is comprehensively analyzed through deviation analysis, in order to understand the overall deviation of the project. This makes it easy to take appropriate preventive or corrective measures.

4.7
偏差分析可通过比较计划目标与最终结果来改进组织的测量指标。
5.6
偏差分析用于将基准与实际结果进行比较，以确定偏差是否在关键范围内，或者是否需要采取纠正或预防措施。

[En]

Deviation analysis is used to compare the benchmark with the actual results to determine whether the deviation is within the critical range or whether corrective or preventive action is necessary.

6.6
偏差分析的重点是实际开工日期和结束日期与计划的偏差、实际工期与计划的偏差、浮动时间的偏差。它包括确定偏离进度基准的原因和程度(见第6.5.3.1节)，评估这些偏离对未来工作的影响，以及确定是否需要采取纠正或预防措施。例如，非关键路径上的活动的长期延迟可能不会影响整个项目进度，而关键或次关键活动的轻微延迟可能需要立即采取行动。

[En]

Deviation analysis focuses on the deviation of the actual start and finish dates from the plan, the difference between the actual duration and the plan, and the deviation of the floating time. It includes determining the cause and extent of deviations from the progress baseline (see section 6.5.3.1), assessing the impact of these deviations on future work, and determining whether corrective or preventive measures are needed. For example, a prolonged delay in an activity on a non-critical path may not affect the overall project schedule, while a slight delay in a critical or sub-critical activity may require immediate action.

7.4
偏差分析用以解释成本偏差（CV = EV – AC）、进度偏差（SV = EV – PV）和完工偏差（VAC = BAC – EAC）的原因、影响和纠正措施。成本和进度偏差是最需要分析的两种偏差。对于不使用正规挣值分析的项目，可开展类似的偏差分析，通过比较计划成本和实际成本，来识别成本基准与实际项目绩效之间的差异；然后可以实施进一步的分析，以判定偏离进度基准的原因和程度，并决定是否需要采取纠正或预防措施。可通过成本绩效测量来评价偏离原始成本基准的程度。项目成本控制的重要工作包括：判定偏离成本基准（见 7.3.3.1 节）的原因和程度，并决定是否需要采取纠正或预防措施。随着项目工作的逐步完成，偏差的可接受范围（常用百分比表示）将逐步缩小。偏差分析包括（但不限于）：

• 进度偏差。 进度偏差（SV）是测量进度绩效的一种指标，表示为挣值与计划价值之差。它是指在某个给定的时点，项目提前或落后的进度，它是测量项目进度绩效的一种指标，等于挣值（EV）减去计划价值（PV）。 EVA 进度偏差是一种有用的指标，可表明项目进度是落后还是提前于进度基准。当项目完工时，全部的计划价值都将实现（即成为挣值），所以 EVA 进度偏差最终将等于零。最好把进度偏差与关键路径法 (CPM) 和风险管理一起使用。公式： SV = EV – PV。
• 成本偏差。 成本偏差（CV）是在某个给定时点的预算亏空或盈余量，表示为挣值与实际成本之差。它是测量项目成本绩效的一种指标，等于挣值（EV）减去实际成本（AC）。项目结束时的成本偏差，就是完工预算（BAC）与实际成本之间的差值。由于成本偏差指明了实际绩效与成本支出之间的关系，所以非常重要。负的 CV 一般都是不可挽回的。公式： CV = EV – AC。
• 进度绩效指数。 进度绩效指数（SPI）是测量进度效率的一种指标，表示为挣值与计划价值之比，反映了项目团队完成工作的效率。有时与成本绩效指数（CPI）一起使用，以预测项目的最终完工估算。当 SPI 小于 1.0 时，说明已完成的工作量未达到计划要求；当 SPI 大于1.0 时，则说明已完成的工作量超过计划。由于 SPI 测量的是项目的总工作量，所以还需要对关键路径上的绩效进行单独分析，以确认项目是否将比计划完成日期提前或推迟完工。 SPI等于 EV 与 PV 的比值。公式： SPI = EV/PV。
• 成本绩效指数。 成本绩效指数（CPI）是测量预算资源的成本效率的一种指标，表示为挣值与实际成本之比。它是最关键的 EVA 指标，用来测量已完成工作的成本效率。当 CPI 小于 1.0时，说明已完成工作的成本超支；当 CPI 大于 1.0 时，则说明到目前为止成本有结余。 CPI 等
  于 EV 与 AC 的比值。公式： CPI = EV/AC。

4.5
Variance analysis reviews the differences (or variance) between planned and actual performance. This can include duration estimates, cost estimates, resources utilization, resources rates, technical performance, and other metrics.

Variance analysis may be conducted in each Knowledge Area based on its particular variables. In Monitor and
Control Project Work, the variance analysis reviews the variances from an integrated perspective considering
cost, time, technical, and resource variances in relation to each other to get an overall view of variance on the project. This allows for the appropriate preventive or corrective actions to be initiated.

4.7
Variance analysis can be used to improve the metrics of the organization by comparing what was initially planned and the end result.

5.6
Variance analysis is used to compare the baseline to the actual results and determine if the variance is within the threshold amount or if corrective or preventive action is appropriate.

6.6
Variance analysis looks at variances in planned versus actual start and finish dates, planned
versus actual durations, and variances in float. Part of variance analysis is determining the cause and degree of variance relative to the schedule baseline (see Section 6.5.3.1), estimating the implications of those variances for future work to completion, and deciding whether corrective or preventive action is required. For example, a major delay on any activity not on the critical path may have little effect on the overall project schedule, while a much shorter delay on a critical or near-critical activity may require immediate action.

7.4
Variance analysis, as used in EVM, is the explanation (cause, impact, and corrective actions) for cost (CV = EV – AC), schedule (SV = EV – PV), and variance at completion (VAC = BAC – EAC) variances. Cost and schedule variances are the most frequently analyzed measurements. For projects not using formal earned value analysis, similar variance analyses can be performed by comparing planned cost against actual cost to identify variances between the cost baseline and actual project performance. Further analysis can be performed to determine the cause and degree of variance relative to the schedule baseline and any corrective or preventive actions needed. Cost performance measurements are used to assess the magnitude of variation to the original cost baseline. An important aspect of project cost control includes etermining the cause and degree of variance relative to the cost baseline (see Section 7.3.3.1) and deciding whether corrective or preventive action is required. The percentage range of acceptable variances will tend to decrease as more work is accomplished. Examples of variance analysis include but are not limited to:
Schedule variance. Schedule variance (SV) is a measure of schedule performance expressed as the difference between the earned value and the planned value. It is the amount by which the project is ahead or behind the planned delivery date, at a given point in time. It is a measure of schedule performance on a project. It is equal to the earned value (EV) minus the planned value (PV). The EVA schedule variance is a useful metric in that it can indicate when a project is falling behind or is ahead of its baseline schedule. The EVA schedule variance will ultimately equal zero when the project is completed because all of the planned values will have been earned. Schedule variance is best used in conjunction with critical path method (CPM) scheduling and risk management. Equation: SV = EV – PV.

Cost variance. Cost variance (CV) is the amount of budget deficit or surplus at a given point in time*, expressed as the difference between earned value and the actual cost. It is a measure of cost performance on a project. It is equal to the earned value (EV) minus the actual cost (AC). The cost variance at the end of the project will be the difference between the budget at completion (BAC) and the actual amount spent. The CV is particularly critical because it indicates the relationship of physical performance to the costs spent. Negative CV is often difficult for the project to recover. Equation: CV = EV – AC.

Schedule performance index。 The schedule performance index (SPI) is a measure of schedule efficiency expressed as the ratio of earned value to planned value. It measures how efficiently the project team is accomplishing the work. It is sometimes used in conjunction with the cost performance index (CPI) to forecast the final project completion estimates. An SPI value less than 1.0 indicates less work was completed than was planned. An SPI greater than 1.0 indicates that more work was completed than was planned. Since the SPI measures all project work, the performance on the critical path also needs to be analyzed to determine whether the project will finish ahead of or behind its planned finish date. The SPI is equal to the ratio of the EV to the PV. Equation: SPI = EV/PV.

Cost performance index. The cost performance index (CPI) is a measure of the cost efficiency of budgeted resources, expressed as a ratio of earned value to actual cost. It is considered the most critical EVA metric and measures the cost efficiency for the work completed. A CPI value of less than 1.0 indicates a cost overrun for work completed. A CPI value greater than 1.0 indicates a cost underrun of performance to date. The CPI is equal to the ratio of the EV to the AC. Equation: CPI = EV/AC.

|32|假设情景分析|6.5， 6.6

6.5
假设情景分析是对各种情景进行评估，预测它们对项目目标的影响（积极或消极的）。假设情景分析就是对"如果情景 X 出现，情况会怎样？"这样的问题进行分析，即基于已有的进度计划，考虑各种各样的情景。例如，推迟某主要部件的交货日期，延长某设计工作的时间，或加入外部因素（如罢工或许可证申请流程变化等）。可以根据假设情景分析的结果，评估项目进度计划在不同条件下的可行性，以及为应对意外情况的影响而编制进度储备和应对计划。
6.6
假设情景分析根据项目风险管理过程的输出评估不同的情景，以使进度模型符合项目管理计划和审批基准。

[En]

Hypothetical scenario analysis evaluates different scenarios based on the output of the project risk management process to make the progress model conform to the project management plan and approval benchmarks.

6.5
What-if scenario analysis is the process of evaluating scenarios in order to predict their effect, positive or negative, on project objectives. This is an analysis of the question, "What if the situation represented by scenario X happens?" A schedule network analysis is performed using the schedule to compute the different scenarios, such as delaying a major component delivery, extending specific engineering durations, or introducing external factors, such as a strike or a change in the permit process. The outcome of the what-if scenario analysis can be used to assess the feasibility of the project schedule under different conditions, and in preparing schedule reserves and response plans to address the impact of unexpected situations.

6.6
What-if scenario analysis is used to assess the various scenarios guided by the output from the Project Risk Management processes to bring the schedule model into alignment with the project management plan and approved baseline.

|33|概率和影响矩阵|11.3

11.3
组织可以在项目开始之前确定优先级规则，并将它们合并到组织过程资产中，或者可以针对特定项目进行定制。在共同的概率和影响矩阵中，既列出了机会，也列出了威胁；机会由积极影响定义，威胁由负面影响定义。概率和影响可以用描述性术语(如很高、很高、中等、低和很低)或数值来表示。如果使用值，则可以将这两个值相乘，以获得每个风险的概率-影响分数，这样您就可以在每个优先级组中对单个风险的相对优先级进行排名。下图是概率和影响矩阵的示例，其中也有可能的数字风险评分方法。

[En]

Organizations can determine priority rules before the start of the project and incorporate them into organizational process assets, or they can be tailored to specific projects. In the common probability and impact matrix, both opportunities and threats are listed; opportunities are defined by positive impacts and threats by negative impacts. Probabilities and effects can be expressed in descriptive terms (such as very high, high, medium, low, and very low) or numerical values. If you use values, you can multiply the two values to get a probability-impact score for each risk, so that you can rank a single risk relative priority within each priority group. The following figure is an example of a probability and impact matrix, where there are also possible methods of numerical risk scoring.

概率和影响矩阵是一个表，它将每个风险的概率映射到其对项目目标的影响。该矩阵结合了概率和影响，便于将单个项目风险划分为不同的优先级组(参见图11-5)。根据风险的概率和影响，对风险进行优先排序，以便今后进一步分析和制定应对措施。利用风险管理计划中规定的风险概率和影响的定义，逐一评估单个项目风险发生的概率及其对一个或多个项目目标(如果发生)的影响。然后，基于概率和影响的结合，利用概率和影响矩阵对单个项目的风险进行优先排序。

[En]

The probability and impact matrix is a table that maps the probability of each risk to its impact on project goals. This matrix combines probability and impact to facilitate the division of individual project risks into different priority groups (see figure 11-5). Based on the probability and impact of the risk, the risk is prioritized for further analysis and formulation of response measures in the future. Using the definition of risk probability and impact specified in the risk management plan, the probability of occurrence of a single project risk and its impact on one or more project objectives (if it occurs) are assessed one by one. Then, based on the combination of probability and impact, probability and impact matrix are used to assign priority to the risk of a single project.

组织可以为每个项目目标(如成本、时间和范围)开发单独的概率和影响矩阵，并使用它们来评估每个目标的风险优先级。组织还可以使用不同的方法为每个风险设置总体优先级。不同目标的评估结果可以组合在一起，或者最高优先级(无论哪个目标)可以用作风险的总体优先级。

[En]

Organizations can develop separate probability and impact matrices for each project goal, such as cost, time, and scope, and use them to assess the priority of risk for each goal. Organizations can also use different methods to set an overall priority for each risk. The results of the assessment for different objectives can be combined, or the highest priority (regardless of which target) can be used as the overall priority of the risk.

11.3
Prioritization rules may be specified by the organization in advance of the project and be included in organizational process assets, or they may be tailored to the specific project. Opportunities and threats are represented in a common probability and impact matrix using positive definitions of impact for opportunities and negative impact definitions for threats. Descriptive terms (such as very high, high, medium, low, and very low) or numeric values can be used for probability and impact. Where numeric values are used, these can be multiplied to give a probability-impact score for each risk, which allows the relative priority of individual risks to be evaluated within each priority level. An example probability and impact matrix is presented in Figure 11-5, which also shows a possible numeric risk scoring scheme.

A probability and impact matrix is a grid for mapping the probability of each risk occurrence and its impact on project objectives if that risk occurs. This matrix specifies combinations of probability and impact that allow individual project risks to be divided into priority groups (see Figure 11-5). Risks can be prioritized for further analysis and planning of risk responses based on their probability and impacts. The probability of occurrence for each individual project risk is assessed as well as its impact on one or more project objectives if it does occur, using definitions of probability and impact for the project as specified in the risk management plan. Individual project risks are assigned to a priority level based on the combination of their assessed probability and impact, using a probability and impact matrix.

An organization can assess a risk separately for each objective (e.g., cost, time, and scope) by having a separate probability and impact matrix for each. Alternatively, it may develop ways to determine one overall priority level for each risk, either by combining assessments for different objectives, or by taking the highest priority level regardless of which objective is affected.

; |34|相关方参与度评估矩阵|10.1 10.3 13.2 13.4

10.1
适用于这一进程的数据列报技术包括但不限于有关各方的参与评估矩阵。请参见第13.2.2.5节。如图13-6所示，利益相关者参与评估矩阵显示了单个利益相关者当前参与与预期参与之间的差距。在这一过程中，可以进一步分析评估汇总表，以确定额外的沟通需求(除了定期报告之外)，以填补参与差距。

[En]

Data presentation techniques applicable to this process include, but are not limited to, the participation assessment matrix of interested parties. See section 13.2.2.5. As shown in figure 13-6, the stakeholder participation assessment matrix shows the gap between the current and expected participation of individual stakeholders. In this process, the assessment matrix can be further analyzed to identify additional communication needs (in addition to regular reports) in order to fill the participation gap.

10.3
适用的数据表现技术包括（但不限于）相关方参与度评估矩阵（见 13.2.2.5 节）。它可以提供与沟通活动效果有关的信息。应该检查相关方的期望与当前参与度的变化情况，并对沟通进行必要调整。
13.2
利益攸关方参与评价矩阵用于将利害关系方的当前参与水平与预期参与水平进行比较。对有关各方的参与程度进行分类的方法之一，如下图所示。有关各方的参与程度可分为以下几个方面：

[En]

The stakeholder participation evaluation matrix is used to compare the current level of participation of interested parties with the expected level of participation. One of the ways to classify the level of participation of interested parties, as shown in the following figure. The level of participation of interested parties can be divided into the following:

• 不了解型。 不知道项目及其潜在影响。
• 抵制型。 知道项目及其潜在影响，但抵制项目工作或成果可能引发的任何变更。此类相关方不会支持项目工作或项目成果。
• 中立型。 了解项目，但既不支持，也不反对。
• 支持型。 了解项目及其潜在影响，并且会支持项目工作及其成果。
• 领导型。 了解项目及其潜在影响，而且积极参与以确保项目取得成功。
  在下图中， C 代表每个相关方的当前参与水平，而 D 是项目团队评估出来的、为确保项目成功所必不可少的参与水平（期望的）。应根据每个相关方的当前与期望参与水平的差距，开展必要的沟通，有效引导相关方参与项目。弥合当前与期望参与水平的差距是监督相关方参与中的一项基本工作。
  

13.4
适用于这一进程的数据列报技术包括但不限于有关各方的参与评估矩阵。请参见第13.2.2.3节。利益相关者参与评价矩阵用于跟踪各相关方参与水平的变化，监测相关方的参与情况。

[En]

Data presentation techniques applicable to this process include, but are not limited to, the participation assessment matrix of interested parties. See section 13.2.2.3. The stakeholder participation evaluation matrix is used to track the change of the participation level of each relevant party and monitor the participation of the relevant parties.

10.1
A data representation technique that can be used for this process includes but is not limited to a stakeholder engagement assessment matrix. Described in Section 13.2.2.5. The stakeholder engagement assessment matrix, shown in Figure 13-6, displays gaps between current and desired engagement levels of individual stakeholders, it can be further analyzed in this process to identify additional communication requirements (beyond the regular reports) as a method to close any engagement level gaps.

10.3
A data representation technique that can be used includes but is not limited to the stakeholder engagement assessment matrix (Section 13.2.2.5), which can provide information about the effectiveness of the communications
activities. This is achieved by reviewing changes between desired and current engagement and adjusting communications as necessary.

13.2
u Stakeholder engagement assessment matrix. A stakeholder engagement assessment matrix supports comparison between the current engagement levels of stakeholders and the desired engagement levels required
for successful project delivery. One way to classify the engagement level of stakeholders is shown in Figure 13-6. The engagement level of stakeholders can be classified as follows:

• Unaware. Unaware of the project and potential impacts.

• Resistant. Aware of the project and potential impacts but resistant to any changes that may occur as a result of the work or outcomes of the project. These stakeholders will be unsupportive of the work or outcomes of the project.

• Neutral. Aware of the project, but neither supportive nor unsupportive.

• Supportive. Aware of the project and potential impacts and supportive of the work and its outcomes.

• Leading. Aware of the project and potential impacts and actively engaged in ensuring that the project is a success.

In Figure 13-6, C represents the current engagement level of each stakeholder and D indicates the level that the project team has assessed as essential to ensure project success (desired). The gap between current and desired for each stakeholder will direct the level of communications necessary to effectively engage the stakeholder. The closing of this gap between current and desired is an essential element of monitoring stakeholder engagement.

13.4
A data representation technique used in this process includes but is not limited to a stakeholder engagement assessment matrix. Described in Section 13.2.2.3. The stakeholder engagement assessment matrix monitors stakeholder engagement through tracking changes in level of engagement for each stakeholder.

|35|相关方映射分析/表现|13.1

13.1
适用于本过程的数据表现技术包括（但不限于）相关方映射分析/表现。相关方映射分析和表现是一种利用不同方法对相关方进行分类的方法。对相关方进行分类有助于团队与已识别的项目相关方建立关系。常见的分类方法包括：

• 权力利益方格、权力影响方格，或作用影响方格。 基于相关方的职权级别（权力）、对项目成果的关心程度（利益）、对项目成果的影响能力（影响），或改变项目计划或执行的能力，每一种方格都可用于对相关方进行分类。对于小型项目、相关方与项目的关系很简单的项目，
  或相关方之间的关系很简单的项目，这些分类模型非常实用。
• 相关方立方体。 这是上述方格模型的改良形式。本立方体把上述方格中的要素组合成三维模型，项目经理和团队可据此分析相关方并引导相关方参与项目。作为一个多维模型，它将相关方视为一个多维实体，更好地加以分析，从而有助于沟通策略的制定。
• 凸显模型。 通过评估相关方的权力（职权级别或对项目成果的影响能力）、紧迫性（因时间约束或相关方对项目成果有重大利益诉求而导致需立即加以关注）和合法性（参与的适当性），对相关方进行分类。在凸显模型中，也可以用邻近性取代合法性，以便考察相关方参与项目工作的程度。这种凸显模型适用于复杂的相关方大型社区，或在相关方社区内部存在复杂的关系网络。凸显模型可用于确定已识别相关方的相对重要性。
• 影响方向。 可以根据相关方对项目工作或项目团队本身的影响方向，对相关方进行分类。可以把相关方分类为：
• 向上（执行组织或客户组织、发起人和指导委员会的高级高级管理层）；
• 向下（临时贡献知识或技能的团队或专家）；
• 向外（项目团队外的相关方群体及其代表，如供应商、政府部门、公众、最终用户和监管部门）；或
• 横向（项目经理的同级人员，如其他项目经理或中层管理人员，他们与项目经理竞争稀缺项目资源或者合作共享资源或信息）。
• 优先级排序。 如果项目有大量相关方、相关方社区的成员频繁变化，相关方和项目团队之间或相关方社区内部的关系复杂，可能有必要对相关方进行优先级排序。

13.1
A data representation technique that may be used in this process includes but is not limited to stakeholder mapping/ representation. Stakeholder mapping and representation is a method of categorizing stakeholders using various
methods. Categorizing stakeholders assists the team in building relationships with the identified project stakeholders. Common methods include:

• Power/interest grid, power/influence grid, or impact/influence grid. Each of these techniques supports a grouping of stakeholders according to their level of authority (power), level of concern about the project's
  outcomes (interest), ability to influence the outcomes of the project (influence), or ability to cause changes to the project's planning or execution. These classification models are useful for small projects or for projects with simple relationships between stakeholders and the project, or within the stakeholder community itself.

• uu Stakeholder cube. This is a refinement of the grid models previously mentioned. This model combines the grid elements into a three-dimensional model that can be useful to project managers and teams in identifying
  and engaging their stakeholder community. It provides a model with multiple dimensions that improves the depiction of the stakeholder community as a multidimensional entity and assists with the development of communication strategies.

• Salience model. Describes classes of stakeholders based on assessments of their power (level of authority or ability to influence the outcomes of the project), urgency (need for immediate attention, either time-constrained or relating to the stakeholders' high stake in the outcome), and legitimacy (their involvement is appropriate). There is an adaptation of the salience model that substitutes proximity for legitimacy (applying to the team and measuring their level of involvement with the work of the project). The salience model is useful for large complex communities of stakeholders or where there are complex networks of relationships within the community. It is also useful in determining the relative importance of the identified stakeholders.

• Directions of influence. Classifies stakeholders according to their influence on the work of the project or the project team itself. Stakeholders can be classified in the following ways:

• Upward (senior management of the performing organization or customer organization, sponsor, and steering committee),
• Downward (the team or specialists contributing knowledge or skills in a temporary capacity),
• Outward (stakeholder groups and their representatives outside the project team, such as suppliers, government departments, the public, end-users, and regulators), or

• Sideward (the peers of the project manager, such as other project managers or middle managers who are in competition for scarce project resources or who collaborate with the project manager in sharing resources or information).

• Prioritization. Prioritizing stakeholders may be necessary for projects with a large number of stakeholders, where the membership of the stakeholder community is changing frequently, or when the relationships between
  stakeholders and the project team or within the stakeholder community are complex.

|36|流程图|8.1 8.2

8.1
流程图，也称过程图，用来显示在一个或多个输入转化成一个或多个输出的过程中，所需要的步骤顺序和可能分支。它通过映射水平价值链的过程细节来显示活动、决策点、分支循环、并行路径及整体处理顺序。图 8-6 展示了其中一个版本的价值链，即 SIPOC（供应商、输入、过程、输出和客户）模型。流程图可能有助于了解和估算一个过程的质量成本。通过工作流的逻辑分支及其相对频率来估算质量成本。这些逻辑分支细分为完成符合要求的输出而需要开展的一致性工作和非一致性工作。用于展示过程步骤时，流程图有时又被称为"过程流程图"或"过程流向图"，可帮助改进过程并识别可能出现质量缺陷或可以纳入质量检查的地方。
8.2
流程图展示了引发缺陷的一系列步骤。

8.1
Flowcharts are also referred to as process maps because they display the sequence of steps and the branching possibilities that exist for a process that transforms one or more inputs into one or more outputs. Flowcharts show the activities, decision points, branching loops, parallel paths, and the overall order of processing by mapping the operational details of procedures that exist within a horizontal value chain. One version of a value chain, known as a SIPOC (suppliers, inputs, process, outputs, and customers) model, is shown in Figure 8-6. Flowcharts may prove useful in understanding and estimating the cost of quality for a process. Information is obtained by using the workflow branching logic and associated relative frequencies to estimate the expected monetary value for the conformance and nonconformance work required to deliver the expected conforming output. When flowcharts are used to represent the steps in a process, they are sometimes called process flows or process flow diagrams and they can be used for process improvement as well as identifying where quality defects can occur or where to incorporate quality checks.

8.2
Flowcharts show a series of steps that lead to a defect.

|37|逻辑数据模型|8.1

8.1
逻辑数据模型将组织数据可视化，并以商业语言进行描述，而不依赖任何特定技术。逻辑数据模型可用于识别可能发生数据完整性或其他质量问题的区域。

[En]

The logical data model visualizes the organizational data and describes it in a commercial language without relying on any specific technology. Logical data models can be used to identify areas where data integrity or other quality problems can occur.

8.1
Logical data models are a visual representation of an organization's data, described in business language and independent of any specific technology. The logical data model can be used to identify where data integrity or other quality issues can arise.

|38|思维导图|5.2 8.1 13.2

5.2
将头脑风暴得到的想法整合到一幅图中，反映想法之间的异同，激发新想法。

[En]

Integrate the ideas obtained from brainstorming into a picture to reflect the similarities and differences between ideas and stimulate new ideas.

8.1
思维导图是一种用于可视化组织信息的导图方法。高质量的思维导图通常基于单一的高质量概念，是在空白页面中间绘制的图像，然后是图像、单词或条目形式的想法。思维导图技术可以帮助快速收集项目质量要求、约束、依赖关系和关系。

[En]

Mind mapping is a mapping method used to visualize organizational information. Quality mind maps are usually based on a single quality concept and are images drawn in the middle of a blank page, followed by ideas in the form of images, words, or entries. Mind mapping technology can help to quickly collect project quality requirements, constraints, dependencies and relationships.

13.2
思维导图用于直观地整理相关方的信息、他们的关系以及他们与组织的关系。

[En]

Mind maps are used to visually sort out the information of interested parties, their relationships, and their relationship with the organization.

5.2
Mind mapping consolidates ideas created through individual brainstorming sessions into a single map to reflect commonality and differences in understanding and to generate new ideas.

8.1
Mind mapping is a diagrammatic method used to visually organizing information. A mind map in quality is often created around a single quality concept, drawn as an image in the center of a blank landscape page, to which associated representations of ideas such as images, words, and parts of words are added. The mind-mapping technique may help in the rapid gathering of project quality requirements, constraints, dependencies, and relationships.

13.2
Mind mapping is used to visually organize information about stakeholders and their relationship to each other and the organization.

|39|矩阵图|8.1 8.2

8.1
矩阵图在行列交叉的位置展示因素、原因和目标之间的关系强弱。根据可用来比较因素的数量，项目经理可使用不同形状的矩阵图，如 L 型、 T 型、Y 型、 X 型、 C 型和屋顶型矩阵。在本过程中，它们有助于识别对项目成功至关重要的质量测量指标。

8.2
矩阵图在行列交叉的位置展示因素、原因和目标之间的关系强弱。

8.1
Matrix diagrams help find the strength of relationships among different factors, causes, and objectives that exist between the rows and columns that form the matrix. Depending on how many factors may be compared, the project manager can use different shapes of matrix diagrams; for example, L, T, Y, X, C, and roof–shaped. In this process they facilitate identifying the key quality metrics that are important for the success of the project.

8.2
The matrix diagram seeks to show the strength of relationships among factors, causes, and objectives that exist between the rows and columns that form the matrix.

|40|亲和图|5.2 8.2

5.2
用来对大量创意进行分组的技术，以便进一步审查和分析。
8.2
亲和图可以对潜在缺陷成因进行分类，展示最应关注的领域。

5.2
Affinity diagrams allow large numbers of ideas to be classified into groups for review and analysis.

8.2
Affinity diagrams can organize potential causes of defects into groups showing areas that should be focused on the most.

|41|因果图||8.2 8.3

8.2
因果图，又称"鱼骨图"、"why-why分析图"和"石川图"，将问题陈述的原因分解为离散的分支，有助于识别问题的主要原因或根本原因。

8.3
因果图用于识别质量缺陷和错误可能造成的结果。
8.2
Cause-and-effect diagrams are also known as fishbone diagrams, why-why diagrams, or Ishikawa diagrams. This type of diagram breaks down the causes of the problem statement identified into discrete branches, helping to identify the main or root cause of the problem. Figure 8-9 is an example of a cause-and-effect diagram.

8.3
Cause-and-effect diagrams are used to identify the possible effects of quality defects and errors.

; |42|直方图|8.2 8.3

8.2
直方图是显示数字数据的条形图，它可以显示每个交付件中的缺陷数量、缺陷原因的排列、每个过程中的不合格数量或项目或产品缺陷的其他表现形式。

[En]

A histogram is a bar chart showing digital data, which can show the number of defects in each deliverable, the arrangement of the causes of defects, the number of nonconformities in each process, or other manifestations of project or product defects.

8.3
直方图可按来源或组成部分展示缺陷数量。

8.2
Histograms show a graphical representation of numerical data. Histograms can show the number of defects per deliverable, a ranking of the cause of defects, the number of times each process is noncompliant, or other representations of project or product defects.

8.3
Histograms can demonstrate the number of defects by source or by component.

|43|散点图|8.2 8.3

8.2
散点图是一种表示两个变量之间关系的图形，它可以表示两个轴之间的关系，一个轴表示过程、环境或活动的任何元素，另一个轴表示质量缺陷。

[En]

Scatter plot is a kind of graph that shows the relationship between two variables, it can show the relationship between two axes, one axis represents any element of process, environment or activity, and the other represents quality defects.

8.3
散点图可以显示一个轴上的计划执行情况和另一个轴上的实际执行情况。

[En]

A scatter chart can show the performance of the plan on one axis and the actual performance on the other.

|44|控制图||8.3

8.3
控制图用于确定过程是否稳定或具有可预测的性能。规范的上限和下限是根据要求设置的，反映了允许的最大值和最小值。控制上限和下限与规范限值不同。根据标准统计原理，控制界限由标准统计计算确定，代表了稳定过程的自然波动范围。基于计算出的控制边界，项目经理和相关方可以确定需要采取纠正措施以防止超出控制边界的性能的检查点。控制图可用于监控各种类型的输出变量。虽然控制图最常用于跟踪大规模生产中的重复性活动，但它们也可用于监控成本和进度偏差、生产、范围更改的频率或其他管理工作，以帮助确定项目管理过程是否受到控制。

[En]

Control charts are used to determine whether a process is stable or has predictable performance. The upper and lower limits of the specification are set according to the requirements and reflect the maximum and minimum allowable values. The upper and lower control limits are different from the specification limits. According to the standard statistical principle, the control limit is determined by standard statistical calculation, which represents the natural fluctuation range of a stable process. Based on the calculated control boundaries, the project manager and interested parties can identify checkpoints that require corrective action to prevent performance that is not within the control boundaries. Control charts can be used to monitor various types of output variables. Although control charts are most commonly used to track repetitive activities in mass production, they can also be used to monitor cost and schedule deviations, production, frequency of scope changes, or other management efforts to help determine whether the project management process is controlled.

|45|责任分配矩阵|9.1

9.1
责任分配矩阵展示项目资源在各个工作包中的任务分配。矩阵型图表的一个例子是职责分配矩阵(RAM)，它显示了分配给每个工作包的项目资源，用于说明工作包或活动与项目团队成员之间的关系。在大型项目中，可以制定多个层次的 RAM。例如，高层次的RAM 可定义项目团队、小组或部门负责 WBS 中的哪部分工作，而低层次的 RAM 则可在各小组内为具体活动分配角色、职责和职权。矩阵图能反映与每个人相关的所有活动，以及与每项活动相关的所有人员，它也可确保任何一项任务都只有一个人负责，从而避免职权不清。 RAM的一个例子是 RACI（执行、负责、咨询和知情）矩阵，如图 9-4 所示。图中最左边的一列表示有待完成的工作（活动）。分配给每项工作的资源可以是个人或小组，项目经理也可根据项目需要，选择"领导"或"资源"等适用词汇，来分配项目责任。如果团队是由内部和外部人员组成， RACI 矩阵对明确划分角色和职责特别有用。

9.1
A RAM shows the project resources assigned to each work package. It is used to illustrate the connections between work packages, or activities, and project team members. On larger projects, RAMs can be developed at various levels. For example, a high-level RAM can define the responsibilities of a project team, group, or unit within each component of the WBS. Lower-level RAMs are used within the group to designate roles, responsibilities, and levels of authority for specific activities. The matrix format shows all activities associated with one person and all people associated with one activity. This also ensures that there is only one person accountable for any one task to avoid confusion about who is ultimately in charge or has authority for the work. One example of a RAM is a RACI (responsible, accountable, consult, and inform) chart, shown in Figure 9-4. The sample chart shows the work to be done in the left column as activities. The assigned resources can be shown as individuals or groups. The project manager can select other options, such as "lead" and "resource" designations, as appropriate for the project. A RACI chart is a useful tool to use to ensure clear assignment of roles and responsibilities when the team consists of internal and external resources.

; |46|文本型|9.1

9.1
如果需要详细描述团队成员的职责，可以使用文本类型。基于文本的文件通常以概述的形式提供诸如职责、权力、能力和资格等信息。这种文件有各种名称，如工作说明、角色-职责-权威表，可作为今后项目的模板，特别是在其内容根据从当前项目中吸取的经验教训进行更新之后。

[En]

If you need to describe the responsibilities of team members in detail, you can use the text type. Text-based documents usually provide information such as responsibilities, authority, competencies and qualifications in the form of an overview. Such a document, which has a variety of names, such as job description, role-responsibility-authority table, can be used as a template for future projects, especially after its content has been updated in the light of lessons learned from the current project.

9.1
Team member responsibilities that require detailed descriptions can be specified in textoriented formats. Usually in outline form, these documents provide information such as responsibilities, authority, competencies, and qualifications. The documents are known by various names including position descriptions and role-responsibility-authority forms. These documents can be used as templates for future projects, especially when the information is updated throughout the current project by applying lessons learned.

|47|层级型|9.1

9.1
传统的组织结构图可以自上而下地显示各种职位及其关系。

[En]

A traditional organization chart can be used to show various positions and their relationships from the top down.

• 工作分解结构 (WBS)。 WBS 用来显示如何把项目可交付成果分解为工作包，有助于明确高层级的职责。
• 组织分解结构 (OBS)。 WBS 显示项目可交付成果的分解，而 OBS 则按照组织现有的部门、单元或团队排列，并在每个部门下列出项目活动或工作包。运营部门（如信息技术部或采购部）只需要找到其所在的 OBS 位置，就能看到自己的全部项目职责。
• 资源分解结构（RBS）。 资源分解结构是按资源类别和类型，对团队和实物资源的层级列表，用于规划、管理和控制项目工作。每向下一个层次都代表对资源的更详细描述，直到信息细到可以与工作分解结构（WBS）相结合，用来规划和监控项目工作。

9.1
The traditional organizational chart structure can be used to show positions and relationships in a graphical, top-down format.

• Work breakdown structures (WBS). The WBS is designed to show how project deliverables are broken down into work packages and provide a way of showing high-level areas of responsibility.

• Organizational breakdown structure (OBS). While the WBS shows a breakdown of project deliverables, an OBS is arranged according to an organization's existing departments, units, or teams, with the project activities or work packages listed under each department. An operational department, such as information technology or purchasing, can see all of its project responsibilities by looking at its portion of the OBS.

• Resource breakdown structure. The resource breakdown structure is a hierarchical list of team and physical resources related by category and resource type that is used for planning, managing and controlling project work. Each descending (lower) level represents an increasingly detailed description of the resource until the information is small enough to be used in conjunction with the work breakdown structure (WBS) to allow the work to be planned, monitored, and controlled.

|48|层级图|11.3

11.3
如果使用了两个以上的参数对风险进行分类，那就不能使用概率和影响矩阵，而需要使用其他图形。例如，气泡图能显示三维数据。在气泡图中，把每个风险都绘制成一个气泡，并用x 轴值、 y 轴值和气泡大小来表示风险的三个参数。图 11-10 是气泡图的示例，其中， X轴代表可监测性， Y轴代表邻近性，影响值则以气泡大小表示。

11.3
Where risks have been categorized using more than two parameters, the probability and impact matrix cannot be used and other graphical representations are required. For example, a bubble chart displays three dimensions of data, where each risk is plotted as a disk (bubble), and the three parameters are represented by the x-axis value, the y-axis value, and the bubble size. An example bubble chart is shown in Figure 11-10, with detectability and proximity plotted on the x and y axes, and impact value represented by bubble size.

; |49|多标准决策与分析|4.6 5.2 5.3 8.1 8.2 9.3 11.5 13.4

4.6
借助决策矩阵和一系列预定义的准则，使用系统分析方法对变更请求进行评估。

[En]

With the help of the decision matrix and a series of predefined criteria, the system analysis method is used to evaluate the change request.

5.2
该技术借助决策矩阵，运用系统分析的方法，建立风险水平、不确定性和价值回报等多种标准，对许多想法进行评价和排名。

[En]

With the help of decision matrix, this technology uses system analysis method to establish a variety of standards, such as risk level, uncertainty and value return, in order to evaluate and rank many ideas.

5.3
多标准决策分析是借助决策矩阵，运用系统分析方法的一种技术。目的是建立要求、进度、预算和资源等多种标准，以提高项目和产品的范围。

[En]

Multi-standard decision analysis is a technology that uses system analysis methods with the help of decision matrix. the purpose is to establish a variety of standards such as requirements, schedule, budget and resources to improve the scope of projects and products.

8.1
多标准决策分析工具，如优先矩阵，可用于确定关键问题和适当的选项，并通过一系列决策确定选项的优先顺序。首先对标准进行排序和加权，然后应用于所有方案，计算每个方案的数学分数，然后根据分数对方案进行排序。在这一过程中，它有助于确定质量衡量指标的优先顺序。

[En]

Multi-standard decision analysis tools, such as priority matrices, can be used to identify key issues and appropriate options and prioritize options through a series of decisions. First, the criteria are sorted and weighted, and then applied to all alternatives, the mathematical scores of each alternative are calculated, and then the alternatives are sorted according to the score. In this process, it helps to prioritize quality measurement indicators.

8.2
在讨论影响项目或产品质量的选项时，可以使用多标准决策来评估多个标准。“项目”决策可以包括在不同的实施方案或供应商中进行选择，而“产品”决策可以包括评估生命周期成本、进度、相关方的满意度以及与解决产品缺陷相关的风险。

[En]

When discussing options that affect project or product quality, you can use multi-criteria decisions to evaluate multiple criteria. "Project" decisions can include selection among different implementation scenarios or suppliers, and "product" decisions can include assessment of life cycle costs, schedule, satisfaction of interested parties, and risks associated with resolving product defects.

9.3
选择标准通常用于为项目选择物理资源或项目团队。使用多标准决策分析工具制定对潜在资源进行评级或评分的标准(例如，在内部和外部团队资源之间进行选择)。根据标准的相对重要性对标准进行加权，权重值可能会根据资源类型而变化。可使用的选择标准包括：

[En]

Selection criteria are often used to select physical resources or project teams for a project. Use multi-criteria decision analysis tools to develop criteria for rating or scoring potential resources (for example, choosing between internal and external team resources). The standard is weighted according to the relative importance of the standard, and the weighting value may change according to the type of resource. Selection criteria that can be used include:

• 可用性。 确认资源能否在项目所需时段内为项目所用。
• 成本。 确认增加资源的成本是否在规定的预算内。
• 能力。 确认团队成员是否提供了项目所需的能力。
  有些选择标准对团队资源来说是独特的，包括：
• 经验。 确认团队成员具备项目成功所需的相关经验。
• 知识。 团队成员是否掌握关于客户、执行过的类似项目和项目环境细节的相关知识。
• 技能。 确认团队成员拥有使用项目工具的相关技能。
• 态度。 团队成员能否与他人协同工作，以形成有凝聚力的团队。
• 国际因素。 团队成员的位置、时区和沟通能力。
  11.5
  所考虑的风险应对策略可以是一种或多种。决策技术有助于确定各种风险应对策略的优先顺序。多标准决策分析借助决策矩阵，为建立关键决策准则、对方案进行评价和评级、优选方案提供了一种系统的分析方法。风险应对策略的选择标准可以包括但不限于应对成本、应对策略在改变概率和/或影响方面的预期有效性、资源可获得性、时间限制(紧迫性、邻近性和潜伏期)、风险发生的影响程度、应对措施对相关风险的影响、由此产生的次生风险等。如果原来的应对策略被证明无效，则可以在项目的后期阶段采取不同的应对策略。
  [En]

  The risk response strategies taken into consideration may be one or more. Decision-making technology helps to prioritize a variety of risk response strategies. With the help of decision matrix, multi-standard decision analysis provides a systematic analysis method for establishing key decision criteria, evaluating and rating alternatives, and selecting preferred schemes. The selection criteria of risk coping strategies may include, but are not limited to, coping costs, expected effectiveness of coping strategies in terms of change probability and / or impact, resource availability, time constraints (urgency, proximity and incubation period), the level of impact of risk occurrence, the effect of coping measures on related risks, the resulting secondary risks, etc. If the original coping strategy is proved to be ineffective, different coping strategies can be adopted at the later stage of the project.

  13.4
  对审查有关各方参与成功与否的各种标准进行优先排序和权衡，以确定最适当的备选方案。

  [En]

  Prioritize and weight a variety of criteria that examine the success of the participation of interested parties to identify the most appropriate options.

4.6
This technique uses a decision matrix to provide a systematic analytical approach to evaluate the requested changes according to a set of predefined criteria.

5.2
A technique that uses a decision matrix to provide a systematic analytical approach for establishing criteria, such as risk levels, uncertainty, and valuation, to evaluate and rank many ideas.

5.3
A decision-making technique that can be used in this process includes but is not limited to multicriteria decision analysis. Described in Section 8.1.2.4, multicriteria decision analysis is a technique that uses a decision matrix to provide a systematic analytical approach for establishing criteria, such as requirements, schedule, budget, and resources, in order to refine the project and product scope for the project.

8.1
Multicriteria decision analysis tools (e.g., prioritization matrix) can be used to identify the key issues and suitable alternatives to be prioritized as a set of decisions for implementation. Criteria are prioritized and weighted before being applied to all available alternatives to obtain a mathematical score for each alternative. The alternatives are then ranked by score. As used in this process, it can help prioritize quality metrics.

8.2
Multicriteria decision making is used to evaluate several criteria when discussing alternatives that impact project or product quality.Project decisions can include choosing among different implementation scenarios or suppliers. Product decisions can include evaluating the life cycle cost, schedule, stakeholder satisfaction, and risks associated with resolving product defects.

9.3
Decision-making techniques that can be used in the Acquire Resources process include but are not limited to multicriteria decision analysis, as described in Section 8.1.2.4. Selection criteria are often used to select physical project resources, or the project team. Using a multicriteria decision analysis tool, criteria are developed and used to rate or score potential resources (for example, choosing between internal and external team resources). The criteria are weighted according to their relative importance and values can be changed for different types of resources. Some examples of selection criteria that can be used are:

• Availability. Verify that the resource is available to work on the project within the time period needed.

• Cost. Verify if the cost of adding the resource is within the prescribed budget.

• Ability. Verify that the team member provides the capability needed by the project.

Some selection criteria that are unique for team resources are:
* Experience. Verify that the team member has the relevant experience that will contribute to the project success.

• Knowledge. Consider if the team member has relevant knowledge of the customer, similar implemented projects, and nuances of the project environment.

• Skills. Determine if the team member has the relevant skills to use a project tool.

• Attitude. Determine if the team member has the ability to work with others as a cohesive team.

• International factors. Consider team member location, time zone, and communication capabilities.

11.5
One or more risk response strategies may be under consideration. Decision-making techniques can help prioritize risk response strategies. Multicriteria decision analysis uses a decision matrix to provide a systematic approach for establishing key decision criteria, evaluating and ranking alternatives, and selecting a preferred option. Criteria for risk response selection may include but are not limited to cost of response, likely effectiveness of response in changing probability and/or impact, resource availability, timing constraints (urgency, proximity, and dormancy), level of impact if the risk occurs, effect of response on related risks,
introduction of secondary risks, etc. Different strategies may be selected later in the project if the original choice proves to be ineffective.

13.4
Criteria for successful stakeholder engagement are prioritized and weighted to identify the most appropriate choice.

|50|投票|4.5 4.6 5.2 5.5 6.4 7.2 13.4

4.5
表决可包括下列决策方法：一致同意、多数同意或相对多数原则。

[En]

Voting may include the following methods of decision-making: unanimous consent, majority consent, or relative majority principle.

4.6
投票可以基于一致、多数或相对多数原则来决定是否接受、推迟或拒绝更改请求。

[En]

Voting can be based on unanimous, majority, or relative majority principles to decide whether to accept, postpone, or reject a change request.

5.2
投票是一种集体决策技术和程序，它对未来的多项行动方案进行评估，以实现预期的结果。该技术用于生成、分类和排序产品需求。投票技术的示例包括：

[En]

Voting is a collective decision-making technique and process that evaluates multiple future programmes of action in order to achieve a desired outcome. This technique is used to generate, classify and sort product requirements. Examples of voting techniques include:

• 一致同意。 每个人都同意某个行动方案。
• 大多数同意。 获得群体中超过 50% 人员的支持，就能做出决策。把参与决策的小组人数定为奇数，可防止因平局而无法达成决策。
• 相对多数同意。 根据群体中相对多数人的意见做出决策，即便未能获得大多数人的支持。通常在候选项超过两个时使用
  5.5
  当由项目团队和其他相关方进行验收时，使用投票来形成结论。
  6.4
  举手表决是一种源于投票方法的形式，经常用于敏捷项目中。在使用这种技术时，项目经理会要求团队成员表示支持某个决策，举起拳头表示不支持，伸出五个手指表示全力支持，三个手指以下的团队成员将有机会与团队讨论他们的反对意见。项目经理将继续举手表决，直到整个团队达成共识(每个人都伸出三个以上的手指)或同意进入下一个决策。
  [En]

  Show of hands is a form derived from the voting method and is often used in agile projects. When using this technique, the project manager will ask team members to signal their support for a decision, raise their fists to show no support, stretch out five fingers to show full support, and team members with less than three fingers will have the opportunity to discuss their objections with the team. The project manager will continue to vote with a show of hands until the whole team reaches a consensus (everyone holds out more than three fingers) or agrees to move on to the next decision.

  7.2
  投票是评估多个未来行动方案以实现预期结果的过程。这些技术可以调动团队成员的参与，提高估算的准确性，增加对估算结果的责任感。

  [En]

  Voting is the process of evaluating multiple future programmes of action in order to achieve a desired outcome. These techniques can mobilize the participation of team members, improve the accuracy of estimates, and increase the sense of responsibility for the results of estimates.

  13.4
  通过投票，选出应对相关方参与水平偏差的最佳方案。

4.5
Voting can include making decisions based on unanimity, majority, or plurality.

4.6
Voting can take the form of unanimity, majority, or plurality to decide on whether to accept, defer, or reject change requests.

5.2
Voting is a collective decision-making technique and an assessment process having multiple alternatives with an expected outcome in the form of future actions. These techniques can be used to generate, classify, and prioritize product requirements. Examples of voting techniques include:

• Unanimity. A decision that is reached whereby everyone agrees on a single course of action.

• Majority. A decision that is reached with support obtained from more than 50% of the members of the group.

Having a group size with an uneven number of participants can ensure that a decision will be reached, rather than resulting in a tie.

• Plurality. A decision that is reached whereby the largest block in a group decides, even if a majority is not achieved. This method is generally used when the number of options nominated is more than two.

5.5
Voting is used to reach a conclusion when the validation is performed by the project team and other stakeholders.

6.4
One variation of the voting method that is often used in agile-based projects is called the fist of five (also called fist to five). In this technique, the project manager asks the team to show their level of support for a decision by holding up a closed fist (indicating no support) up to five fingers (indicating full support). If a team member holds up fewer than three fingers, the team member is given the opportunity to discuss any objections with the team. The project manager continues the fist-of-five process until the team achieves consensus (everyone holds up three or more fingers) or agrees to move on to the next decision.

7.2
Voting is an assessment process having multiple alternatives with an expected outcome in the form of future actions. These techniques are useful for engaging team members to improve estimate accuracy and commitment to the emerging estimates.

13.4
Voting can be used to select the best response for a variance in stakeholder engagement.

|51|独裁型决策制定|4.6 5.2

4.6
采用这种决策技术，将由一个人负责为整个集体制定决策。
5.2
采用这种方法，将由一个人负责为整个集体制定决策。

4.6
Autocratic decision making. In this decision-making technique, one individual takes the responsibility for making the decision for the entire group.

5.2
In this method, one individual takes responsibility for making the decision for the group.

|52|优先级排序或分级|13.2

13.2
应优先考虑有关各方以及有关各方本身的需要，或对其进行分级。利益最大、影响力最大的利害关系方通常应该排在优先顺序的首位。

[En]

The needs of interested parties as well as the relevant parties themselves should be prioritized or graded. The interested parties with the greatest interests and influence should usually be at the top of the priority list.

13.2
Stakeholder requirements need to be prioritized and ranked, as do the stakeholders themselves. Stakeholders with the most interest and the highest influence are often prioritized at the top of the list.

|53|沟通胜任力|10.2

10.2
沟通技巧的量身结合有助于阐明关键信息的目的，建立有效的关系，实现信息共享，并采取领导行为。

[En]

The tailored combination of communication skills helps to clarify the purpose of key information, establish effective relationships, achieve information sharing, and take leadership behavior.

10.2
A combination of tailored communication skills that considers factors such as clarity of purpose in key messages, effective relationships and information sharing, and leadership behaviors.

|54|非语言/非口头技能|10.2

10.2
例如，意义是通过适当的肢体语言来表达的，如手势、语调和面部表情。镜面模仿和眼神交流也是重要的技能。团队成员应该知道如何通过说什么和不说什么来表达自己。

[En]

For example, the meaning is expressed through appropriate body language such as gestures, intonation, and facial expressions. Mirror imitation and eye contact are also important skills. Team members should know how to express themselves by what to say and what not to say.

10.2
Examples of nonverbal communication include appropriate body language to transmit meaning through gestures, tone of voice, and facial expressions. Mirroring and eye contact are also important techniques. The team members should be aware of how they are expressing themselves both through what they say and what they don't say.

|55|反馈|10.2 13.3 13.4

10.2
反馈是关于沟通、交付成果或情况的回应信息。反馈支持项目经理和团队以及所有其他项目干系人之间的互动。例如，指导、指导和咨询。

[En]

Feedback is response information about communication, deliverables, or situations. Feedback supports interaction between the project manager and the team and all other project stakeholders. For example, mentoring, mentoring and consultation.

13.3
在实施管理利益相关者参与过程时，应根据沟通管理计划，对各利害关系方采取相应的沟通方式。项目管理团队应该使用反馈机制来了解利益相关者对各种项目管理活动和关键决策的反应。反馈收集方法包括但不限于：

[En]

When carrying out the participation process of management stakeholders, corresponding communication methods should be adopted for each interested party according to the communication management plan. Project management teams should use feedback mechanisms to understand the responses of stakeholders to various project management activities and key decisions. Feedback collection methods include, but are not limited to:

• 正式与非正式对话；
• 问题识别和讨论；
• 会议；
• 进展报告；
• 调查。
  13.4
  反馈用于确保发送给相关方的信息被接收和理解。

10.2
Feedback is information about reactions to communications, a deliverable, or a situation. Feedback supports interactive communication between the project manager, team and all other project stakeholders. Examples include coaching, mentoring, and negotiating.

13.3
The methods of communication identified for each stakeholder in the communications management plan are applied during stakeholder engagement management. The project management team uses feedback to assist in understanding stakeholder reaction to the various project management activities and key decisions. Feedback may be collected in the following ways, but not limited to:

• Conversations; both formal and informal,
• Issue identification and discussion,
• Meetings,
• Progress reporting, and
• Surveys.

13.4
Feedback is used to ensure that the information to stakeholders is received and understood.

|56|演示|10.2 13.4

10.2
演示是信息和/或文档的正式交付。向项目相关方明确有效地演示项目信息可包括（但不限于）：

• 向相关方报告项目进度和信息更新；
• 提供背景信息以支持决策制定；
• 提供有关项目及其目标的一般信息，以提升项目工作和项目团队的形象
  
  [En]

  provide general information about the project and its objectives to enhance the image of the project work and the project team*

• 提供具体信息，以提升对项目工作和目标的理解和支持力度。
  为获得演示成功，应该从内容和形式上考虑以下因素：
• 受众及其期望和需求；
• 项目和项目团队的需求及目标。
  13.4
  演示为相关方提供清晰的信息。

10.2
A presentation is the formal delivery of information and/or documentation. Clear and effective presentations of project information to relevant stakeholders can include but are not limited to:

• Progress reports and information updates to stakeholders;
• Background information to support decision making;
• General information about the project and its objectives, for the purposes of raising the profile of the work of the project and the team; and
• Specific information aimed at increasing understanding and support of the work and objectives of the project.

Presentations will be successful when the content and delivery take the following into account:
* The audience, their expectations, and needs; and
* The needs and objectives of the project and project team.

13.4
Presentations provide clear information to stakeholders.

|57|积极倾听|4.4 10.2 13.4

4.4
积极倾听有助于减少误解并促进沟通和知识分享。
10.2
与说话人保持互动，并总结对话内容，以确保有效的信息交换。
13.4
通过积极倾听，减少理解错误和沟通错误。

4.4
Active listening helps reduce misunderstandings and improves communication and knowledge sharing.

10.2
Listening actively involves acknowledging, clarifying and confirming, understanding, and removing barriers that adversely affect comprehension.

13.4
Active listening is used to reduce misunderstandings and other miscommunication.

|58|沟通风格评估|10.1

10.1
一种技术，用于在规划通信活动时评估通信方式并确定首选的通信方法、形式和内容。通常用于不支持项目的相关方。可以首先对利害关系方的参与情况进行评估(见第13.2.2.5节)，然后再进行沟通风格评估。在对有关方面参与情况的评估中，找出有关方面参与方面的差距。为了弥合这一差距，有必要量身定做沟通活动和艺术品。

[En]

A technique used to evaluate communication styles and identify preferred communication methods, forms, and content when planning communication activities. Often used for interested parties that do not support the project. An assessment of the participation of interested parties can be carried out first (see section 13.2.2.5), followed by a communication style assessment. In the evaluation of the participation of the relevant parties, find out the gap in the participation of the relevant parties. In order to bridge this gap, it is necessary to tailor communication activities and artifacts.

10.1
A technique used to assess communication styles and identify the preferred communication method, format, and content for planned communication activities. Often used with unsupportive stakeholders, this assessment may follow a stakeholder engagement assessment (described in Section 13.2.2.5) to identify gaps in stakeholder engagement that require additional tailored communication activities and artifacts.

|59|冲突管理|4.1 4.2 9.4 9.5 10.2 13.3

4.1
冲突管理帮助利益相关者就目标、成功标准、高级要求、项目描述、总体里程碑和其他要素达成一致。

[En]

Conflict management helps stakeholders agree on goals, success criteria, high-level requirements, project descriptions, overall milestones, and other elements.

4.2
如有必要，可以使用冲突管理，使不同的利益攸关方能够就项目管理计划的所有方面达成共识。

[En]

If necessary, conflict management can be used to enable different stakeholders to reach a consensus on all aspects of the project management plan.

9.4
项目经理应及时地以建设性方式解决冲突，从而创建高绩效团队。
9.5
在项目环境中，冲突是不可避免的。冲突的根源包括资源匮乏、进展轻重缓急以及个人工作风格的差异。通过采用团队基本规则、团队规范和成熟的项目管理实践，例如沟通规划和角色定义，可以减少冲突的数量。

[En]

In the project environment, conflicts are inevitable. The sources of conflicts include scarcity of resources, prioritization of progress and differences in personal work styles. The number of conflicts can be reduced by adopting team basic rules, team specifications, and mature project management practices, such as communication planning and role definition.

成功的冲突管理可以提高生产力，改善工作关系。同时，如果处理得当，意见分歧有利于提高创造力和决策能力。如果意见分歧成为一个负面因素，应首先由项目组成员解决；如果冲突升级，项目经理应提供协助，以促进满意的解决办法，以直接和合作的方式尽快处理冲突，通常是私下处理。如果破坏性冲突持续存在，可以使用正式程序，包括纪律措施。

[En]

Successful conflict management can increase productivity and improve working relationships. At the same time, if properly managed, differences of opinion are conducive to improving creativity and decision-making. If the difference of opinion becomes a negative factor, it should be resolved first by the project team members; if the conflict escalates, the project manager should provide assistance to promote a satisfactory solution, in a direct and cooperative manner, deal with the conflict as soon as possible and usually in private. If destructive conflicts persist, formal procedures can be used, including disciplinary measures.

项目经理解决冲突的能力往往决定着他的项目团队管理的成败。不同的项目经理可能采用不同的方法来解决冲突。影响冲突解决的因素包括：

[En]

The project manager's ability to resolve conflicts often determines the success or failure of his project team management. Different project managers may adopt different approaches to conflict resolution. Factors that affect conflict resolution include:

• 冲突的重要性与激烈程度；
• 解决冲突的紧迫性；
• 涉及冲突的人员的相对权力；
• 维持良好关系的重要性；
• 永久或暂时解决冲突的动机。
  有五种常用的冲突解决方法，每种技巧都有各自的作用和用途。
• 撤退/回避。 从实际或潜在冲突中退出，将问题推迟到准备充分的时候，或者将问题推给其他人员解决。
• 缓和/包容。 强调一致而非差异；为维持和谐与关系而退让一步，考虑其他方的需要。
• 妥协/调解。 为了暂时或部分解决冲突，寻找能让各方都在一定程度上满意的方案，但这种方法有时会导致"双输"局面。
• 强迫/命令。 以牺牲其他方为代价，推行某一方的观点；只提供赢 — 输方案。通常是利用权力来强行解决紧急问题，这种方法通常会导致"赢输"局面。
• 合作/解决问题。 综合考虑不同的观点和意见，采用合作的态度和开放式对话引导各方达成共识和承诺，这种方法可以带来双赢局面。
  10.2
  13.3
  项目经理应确保及时解决冲突。

4.1
Conflict management can be used to help bring stakeholders into alignment on the objectives, success criteria, high-level requirements, project description, summary milestones, and other elements of the charter.

4.2
Conflict management may be necessary to bring diverse stakeholders into alignment on all aspects of the project management plan.

9.4
The project manager needs to resolve conflicts in a timely manner and in a constructive way in order to achieve a high-performing team.

9.5
Conflict is inevitable in a project environment. Sources of conflict include scarce resources, scheduling priorities, and personal work styles. Team ground rules, group norms, and solid project management practices, like communication planning and role definition, reduce the amount of conflict.

Successful conflict management results in greater productivity and positive working relationships. When managed properly, differences of opinion can lead to increased creativity and better decision making. If the differences become a negative factor, project team members are initially responsible for their resolution. If conflict escalates, the project manager should help facilitate a satisfactory resolution. Conflict should be addressed early and usually in private, using a direct, collaborative approach. If disruptive conflict continues, formal procedures may be used, including disciplinary actions.

The success of project managers in managing their project teams often depends on their ability to resolve conflict. Different project managers may use different conflict resolution methods. Factors that influence conflict resolution methods include:

• Importance and intensity of the conflict,
• Time pressure for resolving the conflict,
• Relative power of the people involved in the conflict,
• Importance of maintaining a good relationship, and
• Motivation to resolve conflict on a long-term or short-term basis.

There are five general techniques for resolving conflict. Each technique has its place and use:
* Withdraw/avoid. Retreating from an actual or potential conflict situation; postponing the issue to be better prepared or to be resolved by others.

• Smooth/accommodate.** Emphasizing areas of agreement rather than areas of difference; conceding one's position to the needs of others to maintain harmony and relationships.

• Compromise/reconcile. Searching for solutions that bring some degree of satisfaction to all parties in order to temporarily or partially resolve the conflict. This approach occasionally results in a lose-lose situation.

• Force/direct. Pushing one's viewpoint at the expense of others; offering only win-lose solutions, usually enforced through a power position to resolve an emergency. This approach often results to a win-lose situation.

• Collaborate/problem solve. Incorporating multiple viewpoints and insights from differing perspectives; requires a cooperative attitude and open dialogue that typically leads to consensus and commitment. This approach can result in a win-win situation.

10.2
13.3
The project manager should ensure that conflicts are resolved in a timely manner.

|60|文化意识|10.1 10.2 13.3 13.4

10.1
文化意识是指了解个人、群体和组织之间的差异，并据此调整项目的沟通策略。文化意识和后续行动可以最大限度地减少项目利益攸关方社区内因文化差异而造成的误解和沟通错误。文化意识和文化敏感性有助于项目经理根据相关方和团队成员的文化差异和需求来计划沟通。

[En]

Cultural awareness refers to understanding the differences among individuals, groups and organizations, and adjusting the communication strategies of the project accordingly. Cultural awareness and follow-up can minimize misunderstandings and communication errors caused by cultural differences within the communities of the project stakeholders. Cultural awareness and cultural sensitivity help project managers plan communication according to the cultural differences and needs of interested parties and team members.

10.2
13.3
文化意识通过考虑文化差异和利益相关者的需求，帮助项目经理和团队进行有效的沟通。

[En]

Cultural awareness helps project managers and teams communicate effectively by considering cultural differences and the needs of stakeholders.

13.4
文化意识和文化敏感性有助于项目经理根据相关方和团队成员的文化差异和需求来计划沟通。

[En]

Cultural awareness and cultural sensitivity help project managers plan communication according to the cultural differences and needs of interested parties and team members.

10.1
Cultural awareness and cultural sensitivity help the project manager to plan communications based on the cultural differences and requirements of stakeholders and team members.

10.2
13.3
Cultural awareness is used to help the project manager and team to communicate effectively by considering cultural differences and the requirements of stakeholders.

13.4
Cultural awareness and cultural sensitivity help the project manager to plan communications based on the cultural differences and requirements of stakeholders and team members.

|61|制定决策|9.5

9.5
在这种情况下，决策包括谈判能力和影响组织和项目管理团队的能力，而不是决策工具集中描述的一系列工具。做出有效的决策需要：

[En]

In this case, decision-making includes the ability to negotiate and the ability to influence the organization and project management team, rather than a series of tools described in the decision toolset. Making effective decisions requires:

• 着眼于所要达到的目标；
• 遵循决策流程；
• 研究环境因素；
• 分析可用信息；
• 激发团队创造力；
• 理解风险。

9.5
Decision making, in this context, involves the ability to negotiate and influence the organization and the project management team, rather than the set of tools described in the decision making tool set. Some guidelines for decision making include:

• Focus on goals to be served,
• Follow a decision-making process,
• Study the environmental factors,
• Analyze available information,
• Stimulate team creativity, and
• Account for risk.

|62|情商|9.5

9.5
情商是指识别、评估和管理个人情绪、他人情绪和群体情绪的能力。项目管理团队可以利用情商来了解、评估和控制项目团队成员的情绪，预测团队成员的行为，确认团队成员的关切，跟踪团队成员的问题，从而减轻压力，加强合作。

[En]

EQ refers to the ability to identify, evaluate and manage personal emotions, other people's emotions and group emotions. The project management team can use EQ to understand, evaluate and control the emotions of project team members, predict the behavior of team members, confirm the concerns of team members and track the problems of team members, so as to reduce stress and strengthen cooperation.

9.5
Emotional intelligence is the ability to identify, assess, and manage the personal emotions of oneself and other people, as well as the collective emotions of groups of people. The team can use emotional intelligence to reduce tension and increase cooperation by identifying, assessing, and controlling the sentiments of project team members, anticipating their actions, acknowledging their concerns, and following up on their issues.

|63|引导|4.1 4.2 4.4 5.2 5.3 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5

4.1
指导是指有效地指导团队活动取得成功以达成决策、解决方案或结论的能力。该指南确保参与者有效参与，相互理解，考虑所有意见，充分支持按照既定决策程序达成的结论或结果，并确保所达成的行动计划和协议得到适当执行。

[En]

Guidance refers to the ability to effectively guide the success of team activities to reach decisions, solutions, or conclusions. The guide ensures that participants participate effectively, understand each other, take into account all opinions, fully support the conclusions or results reached in accordance with the established decision-making process, and that the action plans and agreements reached are then properly implemented.

4.2
该指南确保参与者有效参与，相互理解，考虑所有意见，并完全支持按照既定决策程序获得的结论或结果。

[En]

The guide ensures that participants participate effectively, understand each other, take into account all opinions, and fully support the conclusions or results obtained in accordance with the established decision-making process.

4.4
引导有助于有效指引团队成功地达成决定、解决方案或结论。
5.2
指导意见与专题研讨会结合使用，将主要利益攸关方聚集在一起，以确定产品要求。研讨会可用于快速定义跨职能需求并协调利益相关者之间的需求差异。由于群体互动的特点。

[En]

Guidance is used in conjunction with thematic workshops to bring key stakeholders together to define product requirements. Workshops can be used to quickly define cross-functional requirements and coordinate needs differences among stakeholders. Because of the characteristics of group interaction.

有效指导的研讨会将有助于建立信任、改善关系和改善参与者之间的沟通，从而帮助感兴趣的各方达成协议。此外，与单独召开会议相比，研讨会可以更早地发现和解决问题。

[En]

Effectively guided seminars will help to build trust, improve relationships and improve communication among participants, thus helping interested parties to reach agreement. In addition, seminars can identify and solve problems earlier than holding separate meetings.

适合采用引导技能的情境包括（但不限于）：

• 联合应用设计或开发 (JAD)。 JAD 会议适用于软件开发行业。这种研讨会注重把业务主题专家和开发团队集中在一起，以收集需求和改进软件开发过程。
• 质量功能展开 (QFD)。 制造行业则采用 QFD 这种引导技能来帮助确定新产品的关键特征。 QFD从收集客户需要（又称"客户声音"）开始，然后客观地对这些需要进行分类和排序，并为实现这些需要而设定目标。
• 用户故事。 用户故事是对所需功能的简短文字描述，经常产生于需求研讨会。用户故事描述哪个相关方将从功能中受益（角色），他需要实现什么（目标），以及他期望获得什么利益（动机）。

5.3
在研讨会和座谈会中使用指导技能来协调具有不同期望或专业知识的关键利益相关者，以就项目可交付成果以及项目和产品边界达成跨职能的共识。

[En]

Use mentoring skills in seminars and symposiums to coordinate key stakeholders with different expectations or expertise to reach a cross-functional consensus on project deliverables and project and product boundaries.

11.2
指导可以提高用于识别单个项目风险和整体项目风险源的许多技术的有效性。熟练的指南可以帮助参与者专注于风险识别任务，准确遵循与技术相关的方法，帮助确保清晰的风险描述，识别和克服偏见，并解决可能出现的任何分歧。

[En]

Guidance can improve the effectiveness of many techniques used to identify individual project risks and overall project risk sources. Skilled guides can help participants focus on risk identification tasks, accurately follow technology-related methods, help ensure clear risk descriptions, identify and overcome biases, and resolve any differences that may arise.

11.3
指导可以提高单个项目风险定性分析的有效性。熟练的指南可以帮助参与者专注于风险分析任务，准确遵循与技术相关的方法，就概率和影响评估达成共识，识别和克服偏见，并解决可能出现的任何分歧。

[En]

Guidance can improve the effectiveness of qualitative analysis of individual project risks. Skilled guides can help participants focus on risk analysis tasks, accurately follow technology-related methods, reach consensus on probability and impact assessments, identify and overcome biases, and resolve any differences that may arise.

11.4
在由项目团队成员和其他利益相关者参加的专门风险研讨会上，熟练的协调人帮助更好地收集输入数据。通过阐明讲习班的目的、在参与者之间建立共识、确保持续专注于各项任务以及以创新的方式处理人际冲突或偏见的根源，可以提高指导讲习班的效力。

[En]

In specialized risk workshops attended by project team members and other stakeholders, a skilled facilitator helps to better collect input data. The effectiveness of guided workshops can be improved by articulating the purpose of workshops, building consensus among participants, ensuring sustained focus on tasks, and dealing with sources of interpersonal conflicts or prejudices in innovative ways.

11.5
指导可以提高单个项目风险和整体项目风险应对策略的有效性。熟练的指导可以帮助风险持有者了解风险，识别和比较替代的风险应对策略，选择适当的应对策略，并发现和克服偏见。

[En]

Guidance can improve the effectiveness of individual project risk and overall project risk response strategies. Skilled guides can help risk holders understand risks, identify and compare alternative risk coping strategies, choose appropriate coping strategies, and find and overcome biases.

4.1
Facilitation is the ability to effectively guide a group event to a successful decision, solution, or conclusion. A facilitator ensures that there is effective participation, that participants achieve a mutual understanding, that all contributions are considered, that conclusions or results have full buy-in according to the decision process established for the project, and that the actions and agreements achieved are appropriately dealt with afterward.

4.2
Facilitation ensures that there is effective participation, that participants achieve a mutual understanding, that all contributions are considered, and that conclusions or results have full buy-in according to the decision process established for the project.

4.4
Facilitation helps effectively guide a group to a successful decision, solution, or conclusion.

5.2
Facilitation is used with focused sessions that bring key stakeholders together to define product requirements. Workshops can be used to quickly define cross-functional requirements and reconcile stakeholder differences. Because of their interactive group nature, well-facilitated sessions can build trust, foster relationships, and improve communication among the participants, which can lead to increased stakeholder consensus. In addition, issues can be discovered earlier and resolved more quickly than in individual sessions.

Facilitation skills are used in the following situations, but are not limited to:

• Joint application design/development (JAD). JAD sessions are used in the software development industry. These facilitated sessions focus on bringing business subject matter experts and the development team together to gather requirements and improve the software development process.

• Quality function deployment (QFD). In the manufacturing industry, QFD is another facilitation technique that helps determine critical characteristics for new product development. QFD starts by collecting customer needs, also known as voice of the customer (VOC). These needs are then objectively sorted and prioritized, and goals are set for achieving them.

• User stories. User stories, which are short, textual descriptions of required functionality, are often developed during a requirements workshop. User stories describe the stakeholder role, who benefits from the feature (role), what the stakeholder needs to accomplish (goal), and the benefit to the stakeholder (motivation).

5.3
Facilitation is used in workshops and working sessions with key stakeholders who have a variety of expectations or fields of expertise. The goal is to reach a cross-functional and common understanding of the project deliverables and project and product boundaries.

11.2
Facilitation improves the effectiveness of many of the techniques used to identify individual project risks and sources of overall project risk. A skilled facilitator can help participants remain focused on the risk identification task, follow the method associated with the technique accurately, ensure clear risk descriptions, identify and overcome sources of bias, and resolve any disagreements that may arise.

11.3
Facilitation improves the effectiveness of the qualitative analysis of individual project risks. A skilled facilitator can help participants remain focused on the risk analysis task, follow the method associated with the technique accurately, reach consensus on assessments of probability and impacts, identify and overcome sources of bias, and resolve any disagreements that may arise.

11.4
A skilled facilitator is useful for gathering input data during a dedicated risk workshop involving project team members and other stakeholders. Facilitated workshops can improve effectiveness by establishing a clear understanding of the purpose of the workshop, building consensus among participants, ensuring continued focus on the task, and using creative approaches to deal with interpersonal conflict or sources of bias.

11.5
The use of facilitation improves the effectiveness of developing responses to individual project risks and overall project risk. A skilled facilitator can help risk owners understand the risk, identify and compare alternative possible risk response strategies, choose an appropriate response strategy, and identify and overcome sources of bias.

|64|影响力|9.4 9.5 9.6

9.4
这一过程的影响技能收集相关的关键信息，以解决重要问题并达成协议，同时保持相互信任的关系。

[En]

The influence skills of this process collect relevant key information to solve important issues and reach agreement while maintaining a relationship of mutual trust.

9.5
在矩阵环境中，项目经理通常对团队成员几乎没有指挥权，因此他们及时影响利益相关者的能力对于确保项目的成功至关重要。影响主要体现在以下几个方面：

[En]

In a matrix environment, project managers usually have little or no command authority over team members, so their ability to influence stakeholders in a timely manner is critical to ensure the success of the project. The influence is mainly reflected in the following aspects:

• 说服他人；
• 清晰表达观点和立场；
• 积极且有效的倾听；
• 了解并综合考虑各种观点；
• 收集相关信息，解决问题，达成协议，同时保持互信关系。
  
  [En]

  collect relevant information, solve problems and reach agreement while maintaining a relationship of mutual trust.*

  9.6
  影响力有助于项目经理及时解决问题并获得所需资源。

9.4
An influencing skill used in this process is gathering relevant and critical information to address important issues and reach agreements while maintaining mutual trust.

9.5
Because project managers often have little or no direct authority over team members in a matrix environment, their ability to influence stakeholders on a timely basis is critical to project success. Key influencing skills include:

• Ability to be persuasive;
• Clearly articulating points and positions;
• High levels of active and effective listening skills;
• Awareness of, and consideration for, the various perspectives in any situation; and
• Gathering relevant information to address issues and reach agreements while maintaining mutual trust.

9.6
Influencing can help the project manager solve problems and obtain the resources needed in a timely manner.

Original: https://blog.csdn.net/zhoujiazhao/article/details/123120045
Author: zhoujiazhao
Title: PMP第6版 每日工具

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可以利用CUDA和GPU的并行处理能力来加速深度学习和其他计算密集型应用程序。CUDA是Nvidia开发的一种并行计算平台和编程模型，用于在其自己的GPU（图形处理单元）上进行常规计算。 CUDA使开发人员能够利用GPU的能力来实现计算的可并行化部分，从而加快计算密集型应用程序的速度。

1.确认适合自己的版本

安装 CUDA Toolkit （工具包）之前，注意不是按照的CUDA的版本越高越好，需要考虑安装的开发工具是否和自己的CUDA驱动版本兼容，如果基于 Python 开发，则需根据所采用的深度学习框架（如 Pytorch、TensorFlow）支持的 CUDA 版本，选择可支持的最新版本安装。

1. 首先查看自己本机的CUDA驱动版本：
点开桌面，右键，选择里边的 "NVIDIA 控制面板"。打开后，单击 左下角的 "系统信息" 。如下图所示：

然后查看文档 NVIDIA CUDA Toolkit Release Notes
根据文档的版本，确定否与当前最新的 CUDA Toolkit 版本兼容


例如，本台电脑511.79，因为是之前更新过的，再这之前我是418.96那个，然后根据上边的表格，选择的应该是 CUDA Toolkit 10.1 这个
点击下载：

; 2. 安装 CUDA Toolkit 10.1

下载好后，双击运行，可更改路径，点击ok，就开始安装了：

进度条完成后：

等待系统兼容性检测：

同意协议后，选择自定义


单击 "下一步(N)" 进行安装。
如下图所示，我们只需选择CUDA下面这4项就够了（默认是全选的。。。），visual studio integration这一项没有勾选是因为我并没有使用VS环境。这一步之后，会询问这些组件的安装路径，可以直接使用C盘的默认位置，当然我自定义了一下（请记住这些安装路径，后面配置环境变量需要用到）。

默认安装目录为 C:\Program Files\NVIDIA GPU Computing Toolkit\CUDA\v11.0，示例程序安装目录为 C:\ProgramData\NVIDIA Corporation\CUDA Samples\v11.0。安装完成后，在命令行窗口（cmd）中，输入 nvcc -V 命令进行测试

3.下载并安装与 CUDA 10.1 版本兼容的 cuDNN

cuDNN 的全称为 NVIDIA CUDA® Deep Neural Network library，是 NVIDIA 专门针对深度神经网络（Deep Neural Networks）中的基础操作而设计的基于 GPU 的加速库。下载 cuDNN 需要注册，官网下载地址为] https://developer.nvidia.com/cudnn 。本人下载的 cuDNN 版本为

【PS：好像记得这个下载 前要注册、填问卷、加入开发者计划什么的】

同意，选择查看之前的版本，

选择正常的版本的进行下载：

下载好后，解压文件：如下：

然后，将所有内容复制到 cuda 10.1 安装目录，即可完成 cuDNN 的安装，如下图所示

; 4. pip 安装 pytorch

pip install torch==1.8.1+cu101 torchvision==0.9.1+cu101 torchaudio==0.8.1 -f https://download.pytorch.org/whl/torch_stable.html

PyTorch先前版本部分截图如下：

cmd 输入命令：

; 5. 测试能否可用

import torch
print(torch.cuda.is_available())

Original: https://blog.csdn.net/weixin_43798572/article/details/123122477
Author: 九重！
Title: Win10 下安装 CUDA Toolkit